@Article{MourãoChouMare:2016:DoClPr,
author = "Mour{\~a}o, Caroline and Chou, Sin Chan and Marengo, Jos{\'e}",
affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais
(CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}
and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas aos Desastres
Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
title = "Downscaling climate projections over La Plata basin",
journal = "Atmospheric and Climate Sciences",
year = "2016",
volume = "6",
pages = "1--12",
keywords = "Regional Climate Model, Climate Downscaling, Climate Change
Assessment, La Plata Basin.",
abstract = "Regional Climate Models are important tools, which are
increasingly being used in studies of impacts and adaptation to
climate change at local scale. The goal of this work is to assess
the climate change over the La Plata Basin, using the Eta Regional
model with a resolution of 10 km. Initial and boundary conditions
used by the model are provided by the Eta-20 km model and the
HadGEM2- ES Global model. The RCP 4.5 scenario was used for
simulations of the future climate. The evaluation of the present
climate (1961-1990) shows that the model represents well the
spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature
in the region. The model underestimates precipitation over large
areas in summer, and overestimates in Southern Brazil in winter.
Simulated temperature shows a good correlation with CRU data, with
bias less than 1\˚C. The bias of temperature and
precipitation in this simulation setup for the La Plata Basin is
substantially reduced in comparison with previous literature using
regional models. The climatic projections are shown in timeslices:
2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. In the three timeslices, the
simulation project has a trend for an increase in precipitation
during summer in Argentina, Uruguay, and southernmost Brazil. This
increase is only projected in Southern Brazil during winter. The
negative anomaly of precipitation appears in a large portion of
the model domain during summer and is limited to some states in
Southeast and Central-West Brazil in winter. The area with largest
warming is projected in the northern portion of the domain. The
projected increase in temperature reaches about 4\˚C in
2071-2099.",
doi = "10.4236/acs.2016.61001",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2016.61001",
issn = "2160-0414",
language = "en",
targetfile = "mourao-downscaling.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "15 jun. 2024"
}