@Article{MarengoJoneAlveValv:2009:FuChTe,
author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Jones, R. and Alves, Lincoln Muniz
and Valverde, Maria Cleofe",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and
University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)}",
title = "Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South
America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling
system",
journal = "Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology",
year = "2009",
volume = "29",
number = "15",
pages = "2241--2255.",
keywords = "climate change, downscaling, vulnerability.",
abstract = "Using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system this study
analyses the distribution of extremes of temperature and
precipitation in South America in the recent past (1961-1990) and
in a future (2071-2100) climate under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2
emissions scenarios. The results show that for the present climate
the model simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme
temperature and rainfall events when compared with observations,
with temperature the more realistic. The observations over the
region are far from comprehensive which compromises the assessment
of model quality. In all the future climate scenarios considered
all parts of the region would experience significant and often
different changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. In the
future, the occurrence of warm nights is projected to be more
frequent in the entire tropical South America while the occurrence
of cold night events is likely to decrease. Significant changes in
rainfall extremes and dry spells are also projected. These include
increased intensity of extreme precipitation events over most of
Southeastern South America and western Amazonia consistent with
projected increasing trends in total rainfall in these regions. In
Northeast Brazil and eastern Amazonia smaller or no changes are
seen in projected rainfall intensity though significant changes
are seen in the frequency of consecutive dry days. © 2009 Royal
Meteorological Society.",
doi = "10.1002/joc.1863",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1863",
issn = "1558-8432 and 1558-8424",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Future.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "15 jun. 2024"
}