@InProceedings{GeirinhasTLSCRCPM:2019:MoInLe,
author = "Geirinhas, Jo{\~a}o L. and Trigo, Ricardo M. and Libonati, Renata
and Sousa, Pedro M. and Castro, Lucas C. O. and Russo, Ana and
Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Peres, Leonardo F. and
Magalh{\~a}es, M{\^o}nica de Avelar F. M.",
affiliation = "{Instituto Dom Luiz} and {Instituto Dom Luiz} and {Universidade
Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Dom Luiz} and
{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Dom
Luiz} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and
{Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz}",
title = "Mortality Incidence levels associated with extremely high
temperatures for the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil",
year = "2019",
organization = "EGU General Assembly",
abstract = "Temperature record-breaking events, such as heat waves (HWs), pose
a significant challenge to the health sector. Considering the
observed and expected increments of mean and extreme temperature
levels, under different climate scenarios, HWs are expected to
increase in frequency, duration and intensity during the next
decades and throughout most regions of the World (Fischer and
Knutti, 2015). The HWs impacts are more effective over high
densely populated urban centers, where the joined contribution of
the urban heat island effect and the worsened air pollution levels
induce an excessive mortality incidence. According to the United
Nations, half of the Worlds population is currently living in
these urban settlements, and demographic projections indicate that
in 2050 this number will increase to circa two-thirds. Considering
such pronounced demographic trends, strategies accounting for the
occurrence of HWs are urgently needed in order to mitigate the
associated potential health impacts. This is particularly relevant
in regions like South America and Brazil, where there is still a
lack of studies analyzing the relationship of natural mortality
concerning extreme heat events and where many people with low
social-economic conditions live within metropolitan regions of
mega-cities. Here we outline the statistical relationship between
temperature extremes and daily mortality levels for a Brazilian
highly populated urban area, the Metropolitan Region of Rio de
Janeiro (MRRJ), from 2000 to 2015. The analysis was conducted for
several age groups and considering general cause-specific
mortality cases. Our results show that mortality tends to increase
significantly during prolonged extreme hot periods, in particular,
when preceded by a cooler period. Deaths caused by respiratory
diseases were identified as showing the most prevailing increment
during extreme heat stress conditions. A special emphasis was paid
to a particular HW event (from 2 to 9 Feb 2010) associated with
the highest mortality peak recorded throughout all the 16-year
mortality considered. This episode was responsible for a total
excess of 737 deaths within the MRRJ, with the elderlies being the
most vulnerable age group. Through the analysis of ERA-Interim
reanalysis anomaly composites, a detailed characterization of the
atmospheric circulation mechanisms responsible for this episode
was performed (Geirinhas et al., 2019). The contribution during
the preceding weeks, of an anomalous dry accumulated surface
scenario for the HW amplification through land-atmosphere
feedbacks was also observed and discussed. The obtained results
represent a serious warning and should be used by authorities as a
guideline to predict and minimize the future impacts of climate
change, allowing society to timely adapt to a range of different
climate scenarios.",
conference-location = "Vienna, Austria",
conference-year = "07-12 apr.",
language = "en",
targetfile = "geirinhas_mortality.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "23 maio 2024"
}