@InProceedings{RodriguezToma:2012:LUHyRe,
author = "Rodriguez, Daniel Andres and Tomasella, J.",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Simulation of the impacts land use and land cover changes - LUCC
on the hydrological response of the Ji-Parana Basin with MGB-INPE
model",
booktitle = "Abstracts...",
year = "2012",
pages = "8264",
organization = "EGU General Assembly.",
note = "{Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14}",
keywords = "impacts, land use, land cover, Ji-Parana Basin.",
abstract = "Hydrological response results from innumerous processes
interacting at different spatial and temporal scales and with
various intensities. Since the hydrological impacts of Land use
and land cover change (LUCC) and climate variability (CV) are
strongly dependent on soil water flow pathways, an adequate
representation of the runoff generation mechanisms are crucial to
assess the hydrological impacts of LUCC and CV on a basin scale.
Model responses to LUCC depend on structure and parameterizations
used in the model. There are two basic methodologies adopted to
define the structure of the hydrological model: downward and
upward approaches. Upward approach is more appropriate for
identifying causal relationships, but their results are highly
affected by assumptions used in the development of the model.
Besides, model structure and parameters values definition are
strongly affected by scale issues and their inter-relationships.
Downward approach is more appropriate for studying the effects of
LUCC, but casual relationships are more difficult to identify.
MGB-INPE model was developed based on the Large Scale Basins Model
of Brazilian Institute of Hydraulic Research (MGB-IPH). It uses
the Xinanjiang Model approach for soil water capacity distribution
at each cell combined with TopModel philosophy. Both methodologies
follow a downward approach: the hydrologic response of the basin
is associated with patterns of self-organization observed at the
basin-scale. The model was applied in the Ji-Parana Basin (JPB), a
30.000-km2 basin in the SW Amazonia. The JPB is part of the
Deforestation Arc of Amazonia in Brazil and it has lost more than
50 % of his forest cover since the 80s. Simulations were performed
between 1982 and 2005 considering annual land use and land cover
change. MGB-INPE model was able to represent the impact of LUCC in
the runoff generation process and its dependence with basin
topography. Simulation results agree with observational studies:
LUCC impacts in fast response processes are marked in sub-basins
with steep slopes; while in basins with more gently topography the
impacts are more pronounced in slow responses processes. The model
was not able to capture the dependence of LUCC impacts on spatial
scales: results from simulations have shown the impact increases
almost linearly with basin scale, while analysis based on observed
data have indicated that impacts are diluted at larger scales.
These discrepancies are probably associated with limitations in
the spatial representation of heterogeneities within the model,
which become more relevant at larger scales. For instance, land
use sub-grid variability is accounted only through the percentage
of each land use within the cell, without an explicit
representation of the location of each use within the gridcell,
nor the interaction between land uses.",
conference-location = "Vienna",
conference-year = "Apr. 22-27, 2012",
issn = "1029-7006",
label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
language = "en",
targetfile = "rodriguez_simulation.pdf",
volume = "14",
urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}