@InProceedings{MarengoNobAlvPesVer:2009:RiAmDi,
author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio and Nobre, Carlos Augusto and
Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Pesquero, Jos{\'e} Fernando and Vergara,
Walter",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Tipping points in climate modeling: Risk of Amazon Die-back and
the JMA-MRI-GSM0130. 60 km - TL319L60 global climate change
projections",
year = "2009",
organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and
Oceanography, 9.",
keywords = "x.",
abstract = "The Amazon region can be categorized as being at great risk from
climate variability and change. The risk is not only due to
projected climate change but also through synergistic interactions
with existing threats not related to climate change, such as land
learance, forest fragmentation and fire. Some model projections
(Betts et al. 2004, Cox et al, 2004, Oyama and Nobre 2004, and
Sitch et al 2008) exhibit over the next several decades a risk of
an abrupt and irreversible replacement of forests by savannah with
large-scale loss of biodiversity and loss of livelihoods for
people in the region. This process is referred as the Die-back of
the Amazon, and it represents a process simulated by few climate
models, where after reaching a tipping point in climate (CO2
concentration, air temperature) the forest stops behaving as a
carbon sink and becomes a carbon source, and after that the forest
enter in an state of collapse, being replaced by a savanna type
vegetation (savannization). The main purpose of this study is to
investigate and assess the risk associated with global warming and
consequent climate change in the region and the feasibility of the
die back of the Amazon and the savannization of the Amazon region,
and to investigate if this possible scenario of future climate is
depicted in the high resolution future climate change scenarios
generated by the JAM-GSM0130-60km -TL319L60 climate model.",
conference-location = "Melbourne Australia",
conference-year = "9 - 13 Feb",
language = "en",
targetfile = "tipping.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "15 jun. 2024"
}