@Article{GuimarãesCWKBFBS:2020:CoHiQu,
author = "Guimar{\~a}es, Bruno dos Santos and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos
Santos and Woolnough, Steven J. and Kubota, Paulo Yoshio and
Bastarz, Carlos Frederico and Figueroa, Silvio NIlo and Bonatti,
Jos{\'e} Paulo and Souza, Dayana Castilho de",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of
Reading} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Configuration and hindcast quality assessment of a Brazilian
global sub-seasonal prediction system",
journal = "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society",
year = "2020",
volume = "146",
number = "728",
pages = "1067--1084",
month = "Apr.",
keywords = "forecast verification, intraseasonal variability, MJO.",
abstract = "This article presents the Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate
Studies (CPTEC) developments for configuring a global sub-seasonal
prediction system and assessing its ability in producing
retrospective predictions (hindcasts) for meteorological
conditions of the following 4 weeks. Six Brazilian Global
Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) configurations were tested
in terms of vertical resolution, deep convection and
boundary-layer parametrizations, as well as soil moisture
initialization. The aim was to identify the configuration with
best performance when predicting weekly accumulated precipitation,
weekly mean 2 m temperature (T2M) and the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO) daily evolution. Hindcasts assessment was
performed for 12 extended austral summers (November-March,
1999/2000- 2010/2011) with two start dates for each month for the
six configurations and two ensemble approaches. The first
approach, referred to as Multiple Configurations Ensemble (MCEN),
was formed of one ensemble member from each of the six
configurations. The second, referred to as Initial Condition
Ensemble (ICEN), was composed of six ensemble members produced
with the chosen configuration as the best using an empirical
orthogonal function (EOF) perturbation methodology. The chosen
configuration presented high correlation and low root-mean-squared
error (RMSE) for precipitation and T2M anomaly predictions at the
first week and these indices degraded as lead time increased,
maintaining moderate performance up to week-4 over the tropical
Pacific and northern South America. For MJO predictions, this
configuration crossed the 0.5 bivariate correlation threshold in
18 days. The ensemble approaches improved the correlation and RMSE
of precipitation and T2M anomalies. ICEN improved precipitation
and T2M predictions performance over eastern South America at
week-3 and over northern South America at week-4. Improvements
were also noticed for MJO predictions. The time to cross the
above-mentioned threshold increased to 21 days for MCEN and to 20
days for ICEN.",
doi = "10.1002/qj.3725",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3725",
issn = "0035-9009",
language = "en",
targetfile = "guimaraes_configuration2.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "01 jun. 2024"
}