@Article{PinhoAnjRodSanTol:2020:PrReBi,
               author = "Pinho, Patr{\'{\i}}cia F. and Anjos, Luciano J. S. and Rodrigues 
                         Filho, Saulo and Santos, Diogo V. and Toledo, Peter Mann de",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         Rural da Amaz{\^o}nia (UFRA)} and {Universidade de 
                         Bras{\'{\i}}lia (UnB)} and Minist{\'e}rio da Ci{\^e}ncia, 
                         Tecnologia e Inova{\c{c}}{\~o}es (MCTI) and {Instituto Nacional 
                         de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es de resili{\^e}ncia dos biomas brasileiros e 
                         riscos socioambientais {\`a}s mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas",
              journal = "Sustentabilidade em Debate",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "11",
               number = "3",
                pages = "242--259",
                month = "dez",
             keywords = "Biomas. Modelagem. Resili{\^e}ncia. Servi{\c{c}}os 
                         Ecossist{\^e}micos. Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas. 
                         Seguran{\c{c}}a Socioambiental, Biomes. Modeling. Resilience. 
                         Ecosystem Services. Climate Change. Social and Environmental 
                         Security.",
             abstract = "As mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas s{\~a}o consideradas 
                         globalmente um dos principais vetores de 
                         transforma{\c{c}}{\~o}es socioambientais, sobretudo em biomas, 
                         ecossistemas e popula{\c{c}}{\~o}es mais vulner{\'a}veis. Nesse 
                         contexto, o conceito de resili{\^e}ncia tem sido frequentemente 
                         empregado, sendo utilizado na ecologia para entender os limiares 
                         de transi{\c{c}}{\~a}o ecossist{\^e}micos pelo qual florestas e 
                         outros habitats conseguem se estruturar diante das diversas 
                         perturba{\c{c}}{\~o}es externas. No entanto, o conceito de 
                         resili{\^e}ncia ante os impactos e riscos das mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas pelas lentes de riscos socioambientais no Brasil 
                         ainda {\'e} pouco desenvolvido, sobretudo na escala de biomas. 
                         Neste artigo, utilizamos a teoria das transi{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         cr{\'{\i}}ticas {\`a} modelagem de distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         nicho ecol{\'o}gico em cen{\'a}rios futuros de aquecimento 
                         global at{\'e} o final do s{\'e}culo, a fim de evidenciar a 
                         altera{\c{c}}{\~a}o da resili{\^e}ncia ecol{\'o}gica dos 
                         biomas da Amaz{\^o}nia, Caatinga, Cerrado, Mata Atl{\^a}ntica e 
                         Pampa, e de que forma as altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es na 
                         resili{\^e}ncia podem levar a um aumento da 
                         exposi{\c{c}}{\~a}o, vulnerabilidades e riscos {\`a} 
                         seguran{\c{c}}a socioambiental. O artigo mostra como a abordagem 
                         interdisciplinar na modelagem de resili{\^e}ncia dos biomas pode 
                         ser um instrumento auxiliar para tomada de decis{\~o}es no 
                         {\^a}mbito das pol{\'{\i}}ticas p{\'u}blicas de 
                         mitiga{\c{c}}{\~a}o e adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de riscos 
                         {\`a} seguran{\c{c}}a socioambiental. ABSTRACT: Climate Change 
                         is amongst the major drivers of socio-ecological transformation on 
                         vulnerable biomes and populations in the developing countries. The 
                         concept of resilience has been widely debated in the context of 
                         climate change and used in ecology to understand the ecosystem 
                         thresholds by which forests and other habitats restructure in the 
                         face of various external disturbances. However, the concept of 
                         resilience in the context of the impacts and risks of climate 
                         change through the lens of the socio-ecological security in Brazil 
                         is still less advanced, especially at the scales of biomes. In 
                         this article, we use a conceptual approach that combines the 
                         theory of critical transitions with the modeling of ecological 
                         distribution in future scenarios of gradual increase in global 
                         temperature by the end of the century for the Amazon, Caatinga, 
                         Cerrado, Mata Atl{\^a}ntica and Pampas biomes. We show how 
                         changes in the ecological resilience of these biomes may cascade 
                         into possible higher exposure vulnerabilities and risks to 
                         socioecological security. The article offers the possibility of 
                         using biome resilience modeling as a supporting tool for decision 
                         making for climate change public policies, as mitigation and 
                         adaptive strategies, as reforestation and the establishment of 
                         priority areas for conservation in the country.",
                  doi = "10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33918",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33918",
                 issn = "2177-7675",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "pinho_projecoes.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}