@InProceedings{RusticucciMarePenaReno:2006:CoObMo,
author = "Rusticucci, Matilde and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Penalba,
Olga and Renom, Madeleine",
affiliation = "{Departamento de Ciencias de la Atm{\'o}sfera y los
Oc{\'e}anos-FCEN- Universidad de Buenos Aires-Ciudad
Universitaria Pab II (1428) Buenos Aires} and {Instituto Nacional
de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and Facultad de Ciencias,
Universidad de la Rep{\'u}blica Uruguay",
title = "Comparisons between observed and modeled precipitation and
temperature extremes in South America during the XX century (IPCC
20C3M)",
booktitle = "Proceedings...",
year = "2006",
editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
pages = "379--389",
organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and
Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
keywords = "temperature extremes,climate change,South America, modelled
vs.observed.",
abstract = "One of the key aspects of Climate Change is to understand the
behavior of extremes. It is recognized that the changes in the
frequency and intensity of extreme events are likely to have a
larger impact than changes in mean climate. We propose to assess
the expected changes in climate extremes over southern South
America through the analysis of the indices of the IPCC 4th
Assessment Model Output for the present climate (IPCC20C3M). These
{"}extreme indices{"} are derived data, from simulated daily
temperature and precipitation, in the form of annual indicator
time series. In this paper, for the common period 1960-2000, the
mean, standard deviation and mean square error between the grid
point from different models and the nearest station was
calculated. The indices that could be comparable are: FD: annual
occurrence of frost days (days with MinT <0ºC), Tn90: percentage
of days where MinT was above the 90th percentile of the 1961-90
base period. R10: number of heavy precipitation days > 10mm (R10),
CDD: consecutive dry days and R5D: maximum 5-day precipitation.
The available models are CCSM3 (CCSM),USA CNRM-CM3, (CNRM), France
GFDL-CM2 .0 (GFDL0) GFDL-CM2.1 (GFDL), USA, INM-CM3.0-Russia
(INM), MIROC high-resolution MIROC), MIROC medre-resolution
(MIRMED), Japan, and PCM, USA (PCM) In general, it is necessary to
think that the values of the models on the Andes cannot be
evaluated by the failing of the models in interpreting the
orography. If we center the analysis in the Southeast of South
America, a low land region which has more dense information, one
sees that the average value is well simulated, the station values
has similar values over regions, and are of the same order of
magnitude, as in case of the models. In some cases, as the model
GFDL, FD's average values are well simulated. The interannual
variability from days to weeks in average, also is in good
agreement. Another temperature extreme, a warm one, Tn90, (being
an index percentile-based, is relative to the local climate), It
seems to be better represented that the FD. The consecutive dry
days are more difficult to be simulated, since the region has a
marked precipitation gradient that is not properly represented.
The maximums of dryness over central Argentina Andes could not be
represented for any model. On the other hand, the extensive dry
season of the Amazon, is displeased and exaggerated in GFDL,
whereas it does not exist for CCSM3. An index that measures the
quantity of extreme rainfall, (R5d) shows in all the models that
the quantity of rainfall is underestimated and there the
differences of rate of rainfall are not clear. The one that better
approaches the average values is the MIROC3.2. When the number of
days is evaluated by extreme rainfall (R10), without considering
how much it precipitated, the maps are more similar. The Amazon
interannual variability is well simulated.",
conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
language = "en",
organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.28.18.42",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.28.18.42",
targetfile = "379-390.pdf",
type = "Climate change in the SH",
urlaccessdate = "15 jun. 2024"
}