@InProceedings{FernandezPisnTara:2006:SePrPr,
author = "Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes and Pisnichenko, Igor and Tarasova,
Tatiana A.",
affiliation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de
Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos(CPTEC). and
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de
Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos and Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de Previs{\~a}o de
Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC)",
title = "Seasonal precipitation prediction over south America with the
ETACLIM",
booktitle = "Proceedings...",
year = "2006",
organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 14. (CBMET).",
publisher = "SBMET",
keywords = "modelos clim{\'a}ticos regionais, conjunto, f{\'{\i}}sica
misturada.",
abstract = "As previs{\~o}es sazonais da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
temperatura s{\~a}o {\'u}teis para as regi{\~o}es afetadas por
eventos extremos como secas e enchentes, os quais normalmente
s{\~a}o associados a fen{\^o}menos globais (El Niņo). O objetivo
deste trabalho {\'e} aumentar o desempenho das previs{\~o}es
regionais sazonais dos eventos extremos sobre Am{\'e}rica do Sul
usando para isto a t{\'e}cnica de previs{\~a}o por conjunto de
f{\'{\i}}sica. A vers{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica do modelo regional
ETA (ETACLIM) do Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos
Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC) foi utilizada para simular a
esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o de ver{\~a}o de 1997/1998 (El Nino). Os
esquemas de convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o e microf{\'{\i}}sica
dispon{\'{\i}}veis no modelo ser{\~a}o utilizados para
constituir os membros do conjunto. Resultados preliminares usando
os esquemas de convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o (Betts-Miller-Janjic,
Kain-Fritsch and RAS) mostraram-se promissores para previs{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas sobre Am{\'e}rica do Sul. The seasonal forecasts
of precipitation and temperature on a regional scale are very
useful, mainly for the regions affected by extreme events: such as
droughts and floods. These events are commonly associated to
global scale phenomena (e.g.: El Niņo/South Oscillation). The aim
of this work is to improve the performance of seasonal regional
forecasts of extreme events over South America using a mixed
physics ensemble approach. For this purpose, seasonal simulations
using the ETA regional climate model (ETACLIM) of the Center for
Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) were carried out
for austral summer 1997/98 (El Niņo). The microphysics and
convection schemes available in the model will be used to
constitute the members of the ensemble. The preliminary results
using the convective schemes (Betts-Miller-Janjic, Kain-Fritsch
and RAS) showed encouraging perspectives for climate predictions
over South America region.",
conference-location = "Florian{\'o}polis, SC",
conference-year = "Nov.27 - 01 Dec.",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
language = "pt",
organisation = "Coordenadora Geral do Congresso - Maria Gertrudes Alvarez Justi
(presidente da SBMET)",
targetfile = "Fernandez.Seasonal.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "15 jun. 2024"
}