@Article{VilaMachLaurVela:2008:MeVa,
               author = "Vila, Daniel Alejandro and Machado, Luiz Augusto Toledo and 
                         Laurent, Henri and Velasco, In{\'e}s",
          affiliation = "Univ Maryland, Cooperat Inst Climate Studies, Comp \& Space Bldg, 
                         College Pk, Univ Maryland, Cooperat Inst Climate Studies, College 
                         Pk, MD 20742 USA and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE/CPTEC)} and Inst Rech Dev, Paris, France and Univ Buenos 
                         Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas \& Nat, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera, 
                         Buenos Aires, DF Argentina",
                title = "Forecast and tracking the evolution of cloud cluster (ForTraCC) 
                         using satellite infrared imagery: Methodology and validation",
              journal = "Weather and Forecasting",
                 year = "2008",
               volume = "23",
               number = "2",
                pages = "233--245",
                month = "Apr.",
             keywords = "satellite, mesoescale convective systems, rainfall, complexes, 
                         west Africa, monsoon.",
             abstract = "The purpose of this study is to develop and validate an algorithm 
                         for tracking and forecasting radiative and morphological 
                         characteristics of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) through 
                         their entire life cycles using geostationary satellite thermal 
                         channel information (10.8 mu m). The main features of this system 
                         are the following: 1) a cloud cluster detection method based on a 
                         threshold temperature (235 K), 2) a tracking technique based on 
                         MCS overlapping areas in successive images, and 3) a forecast 
                         module based on the evolution of each particular MCS in previous 
                         steps. This feature is based on the MCS's possible displacement 
                         (considering the center of the mass position of the cloud cluster 
                         in previous time steps) and its size evolution. Statistical 
                         information about MCS evolution during the Wet Season Atmospheric 
                         Mesoscale Campaign (WETAMC) of the Large-Scale 
                         Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) was used to 
                         obtain area expansion mean rates for different MCSs according to 
                         their lifetime durations. This nowcasting tool was applied to 
                         evaluate the MCS displacement and size evolution over the Del 
                         Plata basin in South America up to 120 min with 30-min intervals. 
                         The Forecast and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters 
                         (ForTraCC) technique's performance was evaluated based on the 
                         difference between the forecasted and observed images. This 
                         evaluation shows good agreement between the observed and forecast 
                         size and minimum temperature for shorter forecast lead times, but 
                         tends to underestimate MCS size (and overestimate the minimum 
                         temperature) for larger forecast lead times.",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
                  doi = "10.1175/2007WAF2006121.1",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007WAF2006121.1",
                 issn = "0882-8156",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "ForTraCC_Published.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}