@MastersThesis{Lima:2021:AnAmPr,
author = "Lima, Lorena Martina Trindade de",
title = "An{\'a}lise do ambiente pr{\'e}-convectivo e da previsibilidade
do modelo WRF para casos de tempo severo observados durante o
experimento rel{\^a}mpago em S{\~a}o Borja/RS",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2021",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2021-05-27",
keywords = "fase pr{\'e}-convectiva, instabilidade, convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o,
WRF, pre-convective phase, instability, convection.",
abstract = "O Sudeste da Am{\'e}rica do Sul {\'e} conhecido como a
regi{\~a}o de maior ocorr{\^e}ncia de tempestades severas do
globo, isso motivou a realiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o do experimento Remote
sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale
Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) em
S{\~a}o Borja/Rio Grande do Sul, com o intuito de coletar
informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es de sat{\'e}lites, radares
meteorol{\'o}gicos, esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de superf{\'{\i}}cie e
radiossondagens para melhor avaliar as diferentes fases da
evolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o profunda.
Ent{\~a}o, este estudo tem como objetivos avaliar o comportamento
das condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es Pr{\'e}-convectivas (PC) de cinco
eventos severos que ocorreram durante a campanha do RELAMPAGO e a
previsibilidade do modelo regional WRF (Weather Research and
Forcasting) operacional no Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e
Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (CPTEC-INPE) no progn{\'o}stico das
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es PC, da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e do perfil
vertical de temperatura, vento e umidade. Para analisar o
desempenho do WRF em prever a fase PC e o perfil vertical foram
utilizados, respectivamente, os dados do ERA-5 e os obtidos no
lan{\c{c}}amento de radiossondagens. Enquanto que a
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o simulada pelo WRF foi confrontada com as
esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de superf{\'{\i}}cies por meio do Root Mean
Square Error (RMSE), BIAS e {\'{\I}}ndice Concord{\^a}ncia de
Willmont. Avaliou-se tamb{\'e}m a refletividade prevista pelo WRF
atrav{\'e}s de compara{\c{c}}{\~o}es com dados do radar
meteorol{\'o}gico calculando o {\'{\i}}ndice
estat{\'{\i}}stico Fractional Skill Score (FSS). Mostrou-se que
os par{\^a}metros PC que melhor apontaram indicativo de
instabilidade na regi{\~a}o de origem dos sistemas foram o
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), o Convective
Inhibition Energy (CINE) e o Cisalhamento do vento (CVV), podendo
ser previstos com at{\'e} 48h de anteced{\^e}ncia em alguns
casos. Tamb{\'e}m constatou-se que o WRF teve dificuldades em
representar a chuva observada nas esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es
meteorol{\'o}gicas, indicando a limita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo
em simular essa vari{\'a}vel de maneira localizada, enquanto
isso, o desempenho do WRF foi satisfat{\'o}rio em simular os
campos de refletividade do radar. Ainda, o perfil vertical do
vento foi bem representado pelo modelo, confirmando o seu
potencial em reproduzir o comportamento da circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o
atmosf{\'e}rica em diferentes n{\'{\i}}veis verticais.
ABSTRACT: The southeast of South America is known as the region of
most severe storm occurrences in the world, which has motivated
the Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/
microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO)
experiment in S{\~a}o Borja/Rio Grande do Sul, with the goal of
collecting information from satellites, meteorological radars,
surface stations and radiosonde to evaluate the different phases
of the evolution of the deep convection. Therefore, this study has
the objectives of evaluating the behavior of the Pre-convective
(PC) conditions of five severe events that occurred during the
RELAMPAGO campaign and the previsibility of the operational
regional model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) from Weather
Forecast and Climate Studies Center do National Institute for
Space Research (CPTEC-INPE) on the prognostic of the PC
conditions, precipitation and vertical profiles of temperature,
wind and moisture. To analyze the WRF performance in predicting
the PC phase and the vertical profile, data from ERA-5 and those
obtained from radiosonde were used, respectively. While the
precipitation simulated by the WRF was compared to surface
stations data through the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), BIAS and
the Willmont agreement index. The forecasted radar reflectivity
data from WRF were compared against meteorological radar
observation by calculating the Fractional Skill Score (FSS)
statistical index. It was shown that the PC parameters that best
indicate instability in the origin region in the systems were the
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), the Convective
Inhibition Energy (CINE) and the Wind Shear (CVV), which could be
predicted with 48h in advance in some cases. It was also noted
that the WRF had difficulties in representing the rain observed at
the meteorological stations, indicating the limitation of the
model when simulating this variable in a localized manner. On the
other hand, the WRF performance was adequate when simulating the
reflectivity fields of the radar. Furthermore, the vertical
profile of wind was well represented by the model, confirming its
potential in reproducing the atmospheric circulation behavior in
different vertical levels.",
committee = "Sapucci, Luiz Fernando (presidente) and Vendrasco, {\'E}der Paulo
(orientador) and Arav{\'e}quia, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio and Santos
e Silva, Cl{\'a}udio Mois{\'e}s",
englishtitle = "Analysis of the pre-convective environment and the predictability
of the WRF model for severe weather cases observed during the
relampago experiment in S{\~a}o Borja/RS",
language = "pt",
pages = "130",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34T/44TTK4P",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34T/44TTK4P",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "04 jun. 2024"
}