@Article{FerreiraMaTaChMoGoSa:2021:AsCrRi,
author = "Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende and Martins, Minella Alves and
Tavares, Priscila da Silva and Chou, Sin Chan and Monteiro, C. and
Gomes, L. and Santana, A.",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Sao Tome Airport} and {Sao Tome Airport}
and {Sao Tome Airport}",
title = "Assessment of crop risk due to climate change in Sao Tome and
Principe",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
year = "2021",
volume = "21",
number = "1",
pages = "e22",
month = "Mar.",
abstract = "Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular country in the west coast
of Central Africa. The small dimensions of the islands and the
limited natural resources put these islands under highly
vulnerable to climate change. To assess the possible future
impacts and risks on their agricultural activities, the
high-resolution 4-km downscaled climate change projections using
Eta regional climate model are used. A crop risk index (CRI) is
proposed to assess the risk of climate change on cocoa (Theobroma
cacao L.), pepper (Piper nigrum L. and Piper guinesse L.), taro
(Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott), and maize (Zea mays L.). The
index takes into account the vulnerability to climate conditions
and the crop yield in the future, and it is classified into
very-high, high, moderate, low, and very-low. The climate change
projections indicate increase in the risk of taro crop, partly due
to thermal stress and partly due to the susceptibility to the leaf
blight crop disease in taro. The risk of production of the pepper
crop is very-high, mainly due to water stress. In mountain
regions, the greater risk is due to the thermal stress caused by
low temperatures. The cocoa crop is at risk due to water stress,
mainly in the northwestern part of the Sao Tome Island, where
major local production occurs. The projection indicates increase
of the area with very-high risk to maize crops due to the increase
of thermal stress and susceptibility to rust. In addition, in
parts of the coastal regions, the risk changed from very-low to
high risk, due to the low productivity potential. In general, the
risks of the four major crops of Sao Tome and Principe increase in
the future climate condition.",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-021-01746-6",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01746-6",
issn = "1436-3798 and 1436-378X",
language = "en",
targetfile = "ferreira_assessment.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "03 jun. 2024"
}