@Article{AlvesChaMoiBroAnt:2021:AsRaVa,
author = "Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Chadwick, Robin and Moise, Aurel and
Brown, Josephine and Antonio, Marengo Jos{\'e}",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Met Office
Hadley Centre} and {Bureau of Meteorology} and {Bureau of
Meteorology} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de
Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
title = "Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil
across multiple timescales",
journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
year = "2021",
volume = "41",
number = "S1",
pages = "E1875--E1888",
month = "Jan.",
note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 2: Fome zero e Agricultura
sustent{\'a}vel}",
keywords = "Brazil, climate change, climate extremes, rainfall, variability.",
abstract = "Rainfall variability change under global warming is a crucial
issue that may have a substantial impact on society and the
environment, as it can directly impact biodiversity, agriculture,
and water resources. Observed precipitation trends and climate
change projections over Brazil indicate that many sectors of
society are potentially highly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change. The purpose of this study is to assess model
projections of the change in rainfall variability at various
temporal scales over sub-regions of Brazil. For this, daily data
from 30 CMIP5 models for historical (19002005) and future
(20502100) experiments under a high-emission scenario are used. We
assess the change in precipitation variability, applying a
band-pass filter to isolate variability on daily, weekly, monthly,
intra-seasonal, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time
scales. For historical climate, simulated precipitation is
evaluated against observations to establish model reliability. The
results show that models largely agree on increases in variability
on all timescales in all sub-regions, except on ENSO timescales
where models do not agree on the sign of future change. Brazil
will experience more rainfall variability in the future that is,
drier or more frequent dry periods and wetter wet periods on
daily, weekly, monthly, and intra-seasonal timescales, even in
sub-regions where future changes in mean rainfall are currently
uncertain. This may provide useful information for climate change
adaptation across, for example, the agriculture and water resource
sectors in Brazil.",
doi = "10.1002/joc.6818",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6818",
issn = "0899-8418",
language = "en",
targetfile = "alves_assessment.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "03 jun. 2024"
}