@InProceedings{SilvaRSNPPOPL:2020:RoClAn,
author = "Silva, Patr{\'{\i}}cia S. and Rodrigues, Julia A. and Santos,
Filippe L. M. and Nogueira, Joana Messias Pereira and Pereira,
Allan A. and Peres, Leonardo F. and Oom, Duarte and Pereira,
Jos{\'e} M. C. and Libonati, Renata",
affiliation = "{Universidade de Lisboa} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de
Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
(UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Federal de Ci{\^e}ncia e Tecnologia do Sul de Minas
Gerais (IFSULMINAS)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
(UFRJ)} and {Joint Research Centre (JRC)} and {Universidade de
Lisboa} and {Universidade de Lisboa}",
title = "Burned area trends in the Brazilian Cerrado: the roles of climate
and anthropogenic drivers",
year = "2020",
organization = "EGU General Assembly",
abstract = "Fire is a natural disturbance in the Brazilian savannas, Cerrado,
with substantial ecological and economic impacts. Most studies
have characterized the fire regime in this biome using climate
drivers but neglected the geographical variation of anthropogenic
activities. These factors can trigger inappropriate fire-fighting
decisions and biodiversity conservation policies. This takes
special relevance in fire-prone biomes with recent fire management
policies as Cerrado, which have been highly modified over the last
decades due to changes in land use and climate. Here, we aim to
identify how variations in climate and anthropogenic drivers
influence burned area (BA) trends at the regional level
(microregions) in Cerrado. We evaluated satellite-derived BA
(MCD64, collection 6) for 172 microregions from 2001 to 2018
across the entire biome. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index
(FWI) was used as a proxy of climate using meteorological
variables from ECMWFs ERA5 reanalysis product. The human leverage,
considered here as population density (PD) and land use (LU), were
derived, respectively, from the annual census of the Brazillian
Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and from a Brazilian
platform of annual land use/cover mapping (MapBiomas). Recent BA
trends considering the drivers FWI, LU and PD, were estimated
using the non-parametric Theil-Sen regression and the modified
Mann-Kendall test. Results showed BA trends over the last 18 years
were significant and spatially contrasted along Cerrado: positive
trends were found in the north-eastern region (in particular, the
most recent agricultural frontier in Brazil: MATOPIBA) whereas the
south-western region showed negative trends. PD showed positive
trends in all microregions and, similarly, LU obtained positive
trends over most of Cerrado. Positive FWI trends were also found
over the central and north-eastern regions and FWI was the driver
that explained most of BA variance in Cerrado. LU and PD were
found to have much more complex relations with BA. Moreover,
regarding the seasonal variability of microregions with positive
and negative trends, the former were found to begin earlier in
June and last longer, indicating that the overall fire season in
Cerrado may be extending. The approach presented here allows the
exploration of recent trends affecting fires, crucial to inform
and support better allocation of resources in fire management
under current and future conditions.",
conference-location = "Online",
conference-year = "04-08 may",
targetfile = "Silva_burnded.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}