@InProceedings{NobreMareCavaObre:2004:SePrPr,
               author = "Nobre, Paulo and Marengo, Jose Antonio and Cavalcanti, Iracema 
                         Fonseca de Albuquerque and Obregon, Guilhermo",
          affiliation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previs{\~a}o 
                         do Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos (INPE.CPTEC) and {UBA - 
                         Argentina} and FUNCEME",
                title = "Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South 
                         American climate",
                 year = "2004",
                pages = "42",
         organization = "CLIVAR Workshop on Atlantic Predictability.",
             abstract = "South America represents an interesting area concerning seasonal 
                         to interannual and longer climate variability. The largest 
                         fraction of the continent is within the tropics, where seasonal 
                         climate predictability is higher, if compared to mid latitudes, 
                         and thus can benefit a large number of people. Also, it 
                         encompasses a few important elements of the climate system, like 
                         the Amazon rainforest, which covers a considerable fraction of the 
                         continental area and represents an important source of upper level 
                         mass and heat at lower latitudes; thus contributing both to the 
                         general circulation of the atmosphere and to the local climate 
                         (Buchmann et al., 1995). It is also subject to and interferes in 
                         two convergence zones: the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) 
                         and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The ITCZ is 
                         modulated by surface features, like the interhemispheric gradient 
                         of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial 
                         Atlantic (Hastenrath and Druyan, 1993; Wagner, 1996; Chang et al., 
                         2000), and it modulates interannual variability of seasonal 
                         rainfall over eastern Amazon and northern Nordeste (Hastenrath and 
                         Heller, 1977; Moura and Shukla, 1981; Nobre and Shukla, 1996). 
                         Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) simulate seasonal 
                         rainfall interannual variability over Nordeste strikingly well 
                         when observed global tropics SST are prescribed (Goddard and 
                         Mason, 2002; Marengo et al., 2003). The SACZ, on the other hand, 
                         is also influenced by SST anomalies over the southwestern tropical 
                         Atlantic, has a strong impact on the rainfall regime over southern 
                         Nordeste, Southeast and Southern Brazil, and contributes to 
                         modulate underlying SSTs over the SW tropical Atlantic (Chaves and 
                         Nobre, 2004). Differently from the ITCZ, however, the SACZ is 
                         observed predominantly over negative SSTA (Robertson and Mechoso, 
                         2000), suggesting that an atmospheric-forcing coupling is 
                         operative at zero lag. AGCM experiments using direct SST thermal 
                         forcing generates simulations with near zero or even negative 
                         skill simulating SACZ (i.e., rainfall) variability (Marengo et 
                         al., 2003). The high reproducibility of Nordeste, and to some 
                         extent over southern Brazil, seasonal rainfall by AGCMs contrasts 
                         with the low reproducibility of seasonal rainfall over 
                         southeastern Brazil, indicating that different processes shall be 
                         operating to modulate seasonal rainfall over those regions.",
  conference-location = "Reading",
      conference-year = "19-23 Apr.",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Nobre_Seasonal_to_decadal.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}