@Article{ReshmiMohanSrYeRaViVe:2022:ImSSIn,
               author = "Reshmi Mohan, P. and Srinivas, C. V. and Yesubabu, V. and Rao, 
                         Brahmananda Vadlamudi and Vittal Murthy, K. P. R. and Venkatraman, 
                         B.",
          affiliation = "{Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research} and {Indira Gandhi 
                         Centre for Atomic Research} and {National Atmospheric Research 
                         Laboratory} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Andhra University} and {Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic 
                         Research}",
                title = "Impact of SST on the intensity prediction of Extremely Severe 
                         Tropical Cyclones Fani and Amphan in the Bay of Bengal",
              journal = "Atmospheric Research",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "273",
                pages = "e106151",
                month = "Aug.",
             keywords = "Rapid intensification, SST, Tropical cyclone, Wind-shear, WRF.",
             abstract = "This study investigates the impact of SST on the prediction of 
                         intensification / rapid intensification (RI) of two pre-monsoon 
                         Tropical Cyclones Fani (2019) and Amphan (2020) in the Bay of 
                         Bengal using convection-permitting high-resolution WRF 
                         simulations. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with SST 
                         boundary conditions derived from i) NCEP operational GFS SST 
                         analysis and forecasts (GFS), ii) NOAA real-time SST data (NOAA) 
                         iii), Climatological mean SST (CLIM). Simulations indicated a 
                         positive SST anomaly of 1.5 °C, 0.75 °C for Amphan and Fani 
                         respectively in NOAA and GFS and all simulations revealed moderate 
                         wind shear during intensification. Significant differences are 
                         found in the intensity prediction. NOAA followed by GFS predict 
                         relatively stronger TCs in response to the warm SST anomalies 
                         relative to CLIM. Results of NOAA suggest that it creates a more 
                         thermodynamically favourable environment than GFS and CLIM due to 
                         warm SST which would facilitate an intense tilt-induced asymmetric 
                         convection, stronger upper air divergence, and its interaction 
                         with the environment flow tending to reduce the shear and leading 
                         to the RI. A detailed analysis for Amphan revealed an increase of 
                         surface fluxes, stronger diabatic heating, enhanced low-level 
                         convergence and convection indicating the creation of a more 
                         favourable thermodynamic environment in NOAA compared to GFS and 
                         CLIM due to warm SST, which favors intensification/RI. The 
                         positive SST anomaly present over a large area around the cyclone 
                         in NOAA has led to larger surface enthalpy fluxes, a high 
                         \θe in the lower and upper regions as well as a warmer core 
                         with strong convective updrafts all leading to a higher 
                         intensification relative to GFS and CLIM.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106151",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106151",
                 issn = "0169-8095",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Mohan_2022_impact.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 jun. 2024"
}