@Article{SetzerKayOliCérRos:2022:InNuEx,
               author = "Setzer, Alberto Waingort and Kayano, Mary Toshie and Oliveira, 
                         Marcelo Rom{\~a}o and C{\'e}ron, Wilmar L. and Rosa, Marcelo 
                         Barbio",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidad del Valle} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Increase in the number of explosive low\‒level cyclones 
                         around King George Island in the last three decades",
              journal = "Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ci{\^e}ncias",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "94",
                pages = "e20210633",
             abstract = "This paper documents an increase in the number of observed 
                         explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland 
                         Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989\‒2020 period. In ECs at 
                         60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops \≥24 
                         hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a 
                         significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break 
                         in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and 
                         after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely 
                         earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly 
                         trends for the 1981\‒2018 period, partially attributed to 
                         global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). 
                         Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through 
                         variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern 
                         Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in 
                         ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with 
                         simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal 
                         oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in 
                         the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 
                         2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. 
                         As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed 
                         before and may help climate modeling studies and weather 
                         forecasts.",
                  doi = "10.1590/0001-3765202220210633",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202220210633",
                 issn = "0001-3765",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "setzer_2022_increase.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 jun. 2024"
}