@Article{ChadwickPendAlveMois:2022:HoReDi,
               author = "Chadwick, Robin and Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Alves, Lincoln 
                         Muniz and Moise, Aurel",
          affiliation = "{Met Off Hadley} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "How Do Regional Distributions of Daily Precipitation Change under 
                         Warming?",
              journal = "Journal of Climate",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "35",
               number = "11",
                pages = "3243--3260",
                month = "June",
             keywords = "Climate changeClimate modelsPrecipitationConvectionEnergy 
                         transport.",
             abstract = "Global warming is changing the intensity distribution of daily 
                         precipitation, with an increased frequency of heavy precipitation 
                         and reduced frequency of light/moderate precipitation in general 
                         circulation model (GCM) projections. Projected future CMIP5 GCM 
                         changes in regional daily precipitation distribution can be 
                         described by a combination of two idealized modes: a frequency 
                         decrease mode, representing a reduction in the frequency of 
                         precipitation at all rain rates; and a frequency shift mode, where 
                         the distribution shifts toward heavier rain rates. A decrease in 
                         daily precipitation frequency and an increase in intensity are 
                         projected in most regions, but the magnitude of change shows large 
                         regional variations. The two modes generally capture the projected 
                         shift from light/moderate to heavy rain rates but do not recreate 
                         GCM changes at the very highest and lowest rain rates. We propose 
                         a simple framework for deep convective precipitation change based 
                         on the dry static energy (DSE) budget, which provides a physical 
                         explanation of these idealized modes in regions and seasons where 
                         deep convection dominates precipitation. One possibility is that a 
                         frequency decrease mode is driven by increased convective 
                         inhibition (CIN). In this DSE framework, increased moisture under 
                         warming could influence the shape of the precipitation intensity 
                         distribution, particularly at the highest rain rates, but does not 
                         govern the overall magnitude of the shift to heavier rain rates, 
                         which is not well described by the Clausius-Clapeyron 
                         relationship. Changes in daily regional precipitation are not free 
                         to respond only to local changes (in e.g., moisture) but are also 
                         constrained by the DSE budget, particularly by DSE transport 
                         associated with the large-scale circulation.",
                  doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0864.1",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0864.1",
                 issn = "0894-8755",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "25 jun. 2024"
}