@Article{Luiz-SilvaMaceRotuChou:2022:PrFuHy,
               author = "Luiz-Silva, Wanderson and Maceira, Maria Elvira Piņero and Rotunno 
                         Filho, Otto Corr{\^e}a and Chou, Sin Chan",
          affiliation = "{Centro de Pesquisa em Energia El{\'e}trica (CEPEL)} and {Centro 
                         de Pesquisa em Energia El{\'e}trica (CEPEL)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "On the observations and environmental modeling in Xing{\'o} 
                         Hydropower Plant - northeast Brazil: present and future 
                         hydroclimatic features",
              journal = "Environmental Modeling and Assessment",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "27",
               number = "1",
                pages = "13--28",
                month = "Feb.",
             keywords = "Climate change, Climate model, Hydropower, Precipitation, 
                         Streamflow, S{\~a}o Francisco.",
             abstract = "The S{\~a}o Francisco River Basin plays a critical role in the 
                         hydroelectrical operational planning of Brazil. Understanding the 
                         hydroclimatic dynamic regime and, consequently, related climate 
                         changes is essential for decision-makers of the hydroelectrical 
                         sector. In this context, the Xing{\'o} hydropower plant and its 
                         drainage area are taken as a reference for the hydroclimatic 
                         features analyzed in this research. Observed rainfall in the 
                         drainage basin and streamflow measurements in the power plant 
                         between 1975 and 2016 are used to assess the climatology of the 
                         region and to identify trends in the time series. In addition, a 
                         methodological framework based on numerical modeling of the 
                         hydroclimatic variables is employed to examine the representation 
                         of the present climate (1961 to 1990) and to investigate the 
                         future projections (2011 to 2100). The outputs from the Eta 
                         regional climate model runs driven by two global models are 
                         adopted in this case under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC scenarios 
                         along with the SMAP rainfall-runoff model. In Xing{\'o}, the 
                         average annual precipitation is about 978 mm and the average 
                         annual streamflow is 2,534 m3 s\−1. The size of the 
                         Xing{\'o} HPP drainage area must be considered, as the rainfall 
                         that occurs in a given month can influence the streamflow of the 
                         following month. There is no trend regarding precipitation, while 
                         the streamflow time series show a statistically significant 
                         decreasing trend in the present climate. Climate projections point 
                         to an elevation in air temperature and a reduction in rainfall and 
                         streamflow by 2100. Most scenarios indicate that the average 
                         annual streamflow could be extremely low for nearly half of the 
                         twenty-first century. The results shown in this work may 
                         contribute to scenarios for operation of the Xing{\'o} HPP and 
                         support with information for planning decisions on country's 
                         energy security in the present and future climates.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10666-021-09810-5",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10666-021-09810-5",
                 issn = "1420-2026",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Luiz-Silva2022_Article_OnTheObservationsAndEnvironmen.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 jun. 2024"
}