@PhDThesis{Mourão:2015:InÁrAl,
author = "Mour{\~a}o, Caroline Est{\'e}phanie Ferraz",
title = "A influ{\^e}ncia das {\'a}reas alag{\'a}veis no balan{\c{c}}o
h{\'{\i}}drico da Bacia do Prata e implica{\c{c}}{\~o}es na
agricultura em cen{\'a}rios futuros de mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2015",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2015-11-24",
keywords = "Bacia do Prata, Pantanal, {\'a}reas alagadas, mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas, impactos na agricultura, La Plata Basin, flooded
areas, climate change, impacts on agriculture.",
abstract = "A Bacia do Prata (LPB \emph{La Plata Basin}) se estende ao longo
de 5 pa{\'{\i}}ses no sudeste da Am{\'e}rica do Sul, onde o
clima e hidrologia sustentam uma das regi{\~o}es mais densamente
povoadas e agricolamente importante do continente. Nas
{\'u}ltimas d{\'e}cadas observa{\c{c}}{\~o}es mostram que
existe uma tend{\^e}ncia positiva na precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
n{\'{\i}}vel/vaz{\~a}o dos rios, tendo o El Niño um forte
impacto na regi{\~a}o, propiciando condi{\c{c}}{\~a}o
anomalamente {\'u}midas durante esse evento. Na LPB encontra-se o
pantanal, que {\'e} uma imensa plan{\'{\i}}cie de {\'a}reas
alag{\'a}veis que varia durante todo o ano influenciando no
balan{\c{c}}o de energia dessa regi{\~a}o. Portanto, neste
trabalho, as {\'a}reas inund{\'a}veis foram inseridas no modelo
clim{\'a}tico regional Eta, e foram avaliados os processos de
superf{\'{\i}}cie na regi{\~a}o, para mostrar como essas
{\'a}reas afetam o balan{\c{c}}o h{\'{\i}}drico e de energia
da LPB. Os resultados desse experimento mostraram que o
balan{\c{c}}o de umidade na LPB {\'e} fortemente influenciado
pela varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial das {\'a}reas alagadas do
pantanal. Como a economia da LPB {\'e} fortemente baseada em
sistemas de cultivos, neste trabalho foi realizada uma
an{\'a}lise dos poss{\'{\i}}veis impactos das mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas na agricultura dessa regi{\~a}o a partir da
an{\'a}lise de eventos extremos simulados pelo modelo Eta,
atrav{\'e}s da simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o controle e do experimento
com a inclus{\~a}o das {\'a}reas inundadas. As
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es mostraram uma tend{\^e}ncia de aumento da
temperatura do ar para toda a LPB, sendo a regi{\~a}o nordeste da
Bacia a mais quente e com uma tend{\^e}ncia de
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o tamb{\'e}m
identificada. Portanto, essa regi{\~a}o poderia ser
climatologicamente desfavor{\'a}vel ao cultivo de diversas
culturas, como a soja, por exemplo, no entanto, verificou-se que
algumas culturas como a cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car poderia
n{\~a}o ser atingida por essas varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas, por ser uma cultura que se adapta bem as altas
temperaturas, necessitando apenas de sistemas de
irriga{\c{c}}{\~a}o nos casos em que a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
fosse reduzida. Apesar dos impactos que as mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas podem causar a essa regi{\~a}o, espera-se que
trabalhos como este sirvam de subs{\'{\i}}dio para estudos de
adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o, que possam compensar os efeitos negativos
da mudan{\c{c}}a do clima, atrav{\'e}s do desenvolvimento de
culturas mais resistentes as varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas. ABSTRACT: The La Plata Basin extends along five
countries in Southeastern South America, where climate and
hydrology sustains one of the most densely populated and
agricultural important regions of the continent. In recent decades
observations show that there is a positive trend in precipitation
and river levels/discharges, and El Nino has a strong impact of
the region with anomalously wet conditions during this event. We
find the Pantanal in LPB, which is an immense plain of wetlands
which have annual variability, and have influence on the energy
balance of this region. Therefore, in this work, the wetlands were
included in the Eta regional climate model, and we assess surface
processes in this region, to show how the wetlands affect the
water and energy balance of the LPB. The results of this
experiment showed that the moisture balance in the LPB is heavily
influenced by the variation in the wetlands. As the economy of LPB
is strongly based cropping systems, in this work was carried out
an analysis of the possible impacts of climate change on
agriculture in this region from the analysis of extreme events
simulated by the Eta model, by means of experiment with the
inclusion of the flooded areas and control simulation. The
analysis of the projections showed an increase in temperature for
the entire LPB, and northeast of Basin being the warmest, while a
negative rainfall trend was also identified. Therefore, this
region could be climatologically unfavorable for the cultivation
of various crops, such as soybean, for example, however we found
that some cultures like sugarcane could not be affected by
climatic variations, since it is a culture that adjusts to the
high temperatures, requiring only irrigation systems where
precipitation was reduced. Despite the impacts that climate change
can cause to the region, it is expected this work can provide
support for adaptation studies that may offset the negative
effects of climate change, by developing crops more resistant to
climate variations.",
committee = "Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica (presidente) and Chan, Chou Sin
(orientadora) and Orsini, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio Marengo
(orientador) and Avila, Ana Maria Heuminski de and Dereczynski,
Claudine Pereira",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "The influence of wetlands on water balance of La Plata Basin and
implications on agriculture in scenarios of climate change",
language = "pt",
pages = "114",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3KKETCS",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3KKETCS",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}