@Article{SantosAvViChAcPoCu:2022:PrRaEr,
               author = "Santos, Wharley Pereira dos and Avanzi, Junior Cesar and Viola, 
                         Marcelo Ribeiro and Chou, Sin Chan and Acuña-Guzman, Salvador 
                         Francisco and Pontes, Lucas Machado and Curi, Nilton",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         de Lavras (UFLA)} and {Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)} and {Universidade de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade Federal de Lavras 
                         (UFLA)}",
                title = "Projections of rainfall erosivity in climate change scenarios for 
                         the largest watershed within Brazilian territory",
              journal = "Catena",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "213",
                pages = "e106225",
                month = "Jun",
             keywords = "Amazon and Cerrado biomes, Climate change, Downscaling, Soil and 
                         water conservation, Water erosion.",
             abstract = "Global climate change can potentially threaten agricultural 
                         production due to endangered natural resources, such as rainfall 
                         patterns. Thus, extreme rainfall events can cause greater rainfall 
                         erosivity, consequently, greater soil erosion. Conversely, a 
                         reduction in rainfall amount can lead to water scarcity for the 
                         agriculture production process. This way, it is a foremost need to 
                         model climatic conditions under global climate change scenarios, 
                         particularly in places where rainfall data tends to increase. This 
                         work aimed to project rainfall erosivity in the major Brazilian 
                         watershed, the Tocantins-Araguaia river basin, throughout the 21st 
                         century under two Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Fifth 
                         Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) Scenarios, the Representative 
                         Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This study 
                         uses the downscaling of four global climate models of the Coupled 
                         Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) by the Eta regional climate 
                         model, used by the Brazilian National Institute for Space 
                         Research. The average rainfall erosivity was calculated based on 
                         the Modified Fournier Index in three periods of 30-year length 
                         throughout the 21st century. Time series of R-factor were analyzed 
                         at rain gauge station points overlapping regional model grid cells 
                         over the basin for the 19612099 period. Projections indicated 
                         lower annual average rainfall erosivity values in comparison with 
                         historical data. Estimated mean rainfall erosivity values were 
                         10,977.69 ± 526 MJ mm ha\−1 h\−1 yr\−1 for 
                         the RCP4.5 scenario, and 10,379.71 ± 723 MJ mm ha\−1 
                         h\−1 yr\−1 for the most pessimistic climate change 
                         scenario, RCP8.5. The largest reductions of the mean R-factor 
                         reached 5,5% for the multi-model ensemble projections for near 
                         future, and 15.4% for the ensemble projections models for 
                         long-term, with the greatest decreasing trends under RCP8.5. 
                         Reductions greater than 2,000 MJ mm ha\−1 h\−1 are 
                         expected throughout the 21st century according to multi-model 
                         ensemble projections models under RCP8.5 scenario in most of the 
                         watershed. Decreasing rainfall erosivity factor in both RCP 
                         scenarios was due to a lower rainfall depth. However, the value of 
                         rainfall erosivity is still considered high and should be taken 
                         into account in soil conservation practices. Furthermore, the 
                         smaller rainfall amount indicates a possible reduction in water 
                         availability for crops of longer cycle, and increase in spatial 
                         variability of less intense rainfall.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.catena.2022.106225",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2022.106225",
                 issn = "0341-8162",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "santos_2022_projection.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "23 maio 2024"
}