@Article{JustinoBroSchSilWan:2022:ArOsPa,
               author = "Justino, Fl{\'a}vio and Bromwich, David H. and Schumacher, 
                         Van{\'u}cia and Silva, Alex da and Wang, Sheng-Hung",
          affiliation = "Universidade Federal de Vi{\c{c}}osa, (UFV) and {The Ohio State 
                         UniversitY} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Universidade Federal do Oeste do Par{\'a} (UFOPA)} and {The 
                         Ohio State University}",
                title = "Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern 
                         dominated-modulation of fire danger and wildfire occurrence",
              journal = "NPJ climate and Atmospheric Science",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "5",
               number = "52",
             abstract = "Based on statistical analyses and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the 
                         Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) induced climate anomalies in 
                         the 20012020 interval, it has been found that these climate modes 
                         drastically influence the fire danger (PFIv2) in differing ways 
                         across coastal and inland regions. The AO induces higher fire risk 
                         in northern Eurasia and central North America, whereas the PNA 
                         increases the fire danger across southern Asia and western North 
                         America. Moreover, fires have been predominantly identified, up to 
                         70%, during the positive phases of AO and PNA northward of 50°N, 
                         in particular over Alaska, Baltic States and eastern Asia. For 
                         coincident positive AO and negative PNA days, a large number of 
                         fires have been identified over northwestern North America and 
                         northern Eurasia. Spectral analyses demonstrate that weather 
                         anomalies related to AO and PNA lead fire danger by 1020 days, and 
                         both modes are significantly correlated to PFIv2 over north 
                         America and most of Eurasia. Despite some drawbacks related to the 
                         fire danger methods currently applied (PFI and FWI), it is 
                         demonstrated that the influence of AO and PNA on potential 
                         environmental driven-fires can be anticipated, in some locations 
                         on almost 90% of days. Fire danger forecasts are urgently needed 
                         and the understanding of factors and conditions, which are able to 
                         modify the environmental susceptibility to fire development, are 
                         crucial for adequate management to reduce the harmful effects of 
                         fire. In this sense, our results reveal that a better prediction 
                         of the fire season can be achieved by advanced assessment of the 
                         PNA and AO behavior, and shed light on the need to investigate the 
                         impact of other modes of climate variability upon wildfire 
                         frequency and severity.",
                  doi = "10.1038/s41612-022-00274-2",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00274-2",
                 issn = "2397-3722",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "s41612-022-00274-2.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}