@Article{IgawaToleAnjo:2022:ClChCo,
               author = "Igawa, Tassio Koiti and Toledo, Peter Mann de and Anjos, Luciano 
                         J. S.",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Instituto Nacional 
                         de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do 
                         Par{\'a} (UFPA)}",
                title = "Climate change could reduce and spatially reconfigure cocoa 
                         cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050",
              journal = "Plos One",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "17",
               number = "1",
                pages = "e0262729",
                month = "Jan.",
             abstract = "Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with 
                         high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that 
                         cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production 
                         is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios 
                         suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this 
                         paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due 
                         to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon 
                         biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation 
                         territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoas geographical 
                         distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were 
                         run in the biomod2 library and projected to two future climate 
                         scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on 
                         climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the 
                         macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system 
                         to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change 
                         according to the current and future suitability model. Our results 
                         suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in 
                         temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa 
                         production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas 
                         suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% 
                         decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion 
                         zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the 
                         current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand 
                         land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be 
                         necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic 
                         conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal 
                         deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change 
                         scenarios from occurring. © 2022 Igawa et al. This is an open 
                         access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons 
                         Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, 
                         and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and 
                         source are credited.",
                  doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0262729",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262729",
                 issn = "1932-6203",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "journal.pone.0262729.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}