@PhDThesis{Borges:2023:AnEvEx,
author = "Borges, Lidiane Aparecida",
title = "An{\'a}lise de eventos extremos sob cen{\'a}rios de
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas na bacia do rio
Itaja{\'{\i}}-A{\c{c}}u",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2023",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2023-01-18",
keywords = "extremos hidrol{\'o}gicos, tend{\^e}ncia, {\'{\i}}ndice
padronizado de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, {\'{\i}}ndice
padronizado de vaz{\~a}o, mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas,
hydrological extremes, trends, standardized precipitation index,
standardized flow rate, climate changes.",
abstract = "Mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas afetam o ciclo hidrol{\'o}gico e
influenciam significativamente o uso dos recursos
h{\'{\i}}dricos. O grande n{\'u}mero de eventos extremos e a
extens{\~a}o prolongada no espa{\c{c}}o e no tempo destes
s{\~a}o indicativos de que as mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas
est{\~a}o se intensificando nas {\'u}ltimas d{\'e}cadas.
Eventos de inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es e secas est{\~a}o sendo
registrados periodicamente, e eventos em que uma seca ocorre
ap{\'o}s uma inunda{\c{c}}{\~a}o ou uma inunda{\c{c}}{\~a}o
ocorre ap{\'o}s uma seca prolongada t{\^e}m sido mais
frequentes. Logo, estudos considerando abordagens distintas sobre
secas e inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es podem subestimar o risco de
desastres se considerados independentemente. Este estudo investiga
os impactos das mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas nos eventos
extremos de inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es e secas na bacia do
Itaja{\'{\i}}, considerando o uso de proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
regionais, teste de tend{\^e}ncia e {\'{\i}}ndices
padronizados. A regi{\~a}o do Vale do Itaja{\'{\i}}, no estado
de Santa Catarina, Brasil, {\'e} uma das regi{\~o}es que se
singulariza por desastres relacionados ao clima que causaram
grandes perdas econ{\^o}micas e sociais nos munic{\'{\i}}pios
que fazem parte da bacia, por{\'e}m, nos {\'u}ltimos anos
tamb{\'e}m v{\^e}m passando por per{\'{\i}}odos de estiagens
que afetaram a regi{\~a}o. Suas atividades econ{\^o}micas
concentram-se no setor agropecu{\'a}rio, o que torna a
regi{\~a}o suscet{\'{\i}}vel aos impactos de desastres
associados, principalmente, aos extremos hidrol{\'o}gicos. O
m{\'e}todo de avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o incluiu o c{\'a}lculo das
tend{\^e}ncias pelo teste de Mann-Kendall e o estimador de Sens e
os {\'{\i}}ndices SPI ({\'{\I}}ndice Padronizado de
Precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o) e SSFI ({\'{\I}}ndice Padronizado de
Vaz{\~a}o) para o per{\'{\i}}odo atual de 1989 a 2020 (32 anos)
e para cen{\'a}rios futuros de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas.
Foram utilizados dois modelos clim{\'a}ticos globais, HadGEM2-ES
e MIROC5, com downscaling pelo Modelo Regional Eta, com 20 km de
resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o, para os per{\'{\i}}odos 2011-2040,
2041-2070 e 2071-2099. Essas proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es adotaram dois
cen{\'a}rios de emiss{\~a}o, o RCP 4.5 e o RCP 8.5. No teste de
tend{\^e}ncia para os dois cen{\'a}rios de RCP 4,5 e 8,5 o
ETA/HadGEM2-ES no geral mostrou que a bacia do Itaja{\'{\i}} no
curto prazo est{\'a} prop{\'{\i}}cia a eventos mais frequentes
de inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es, e no m{\'e}dio-prazo e longo-prazo os
eventos de seca poder{\~a}o ser mais frequentes. O modelo
ETA/MIROC5 nos cen{\'a}rios de RCP 4,5 e 8,5, nos tr{\^e}s
per{\'{\i}}odos, indicou aumento da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
do escoamento na bacia do Itaja{\'{\i}}, ou seja, a regi{\~a}o
estaria mais propicia a frequ{\^e}ncia de eventos de
inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es. Quando analisados os {\'{\i}}ndices SPI
e SSFI os dois modelos ETA/HadGEM2-ES e ET/MIROC5 e nos dois
cen{\'a}rios de RCP 4,5 e 8,5 mostraram que nos tr{\^e}s
per{\'{\i}}odos, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2099, a bacia do
Itaja{\'{\i}} est{\'a} prop{\'{\i}}cia a eventos extremos de
inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es e secas, comprovado pelos valores do SPI e
SSFI acima de 2 e menor que -2, os quais indicam per{\'{\i}}odos
extremamente {\'u}midos e secos, respectivamente. Portanto, as
mudan{\c{c}}as projetadas para essa regi{\~a}o podem desencadear
a ocorr{\^e}ncia de desastres relacionados a eventos extremos,
associados a inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es e secas, e que podem aumentar
a vulnerabilidade das pessoas que vivem em {\'a}reas de risco.
Assim, {\'e} imprescind{\'{\i}}vel considerar o clima futuro
para a ado{\c{c}}{\~a}o de medidas de mitiga{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o aos impactos das mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas, bem como para um melhor planejamento e
gest{\~a}o dos recursos h{\'{\i}}dricos na bacia do
Itaja{\'{\i}}. ABSTRACT: Climate changes affect the hydrological
cycle and influence significantly the use of water resources. The
large number and prolonged extension of drought events are
indicative that climate changes are intensifying in the last
decades. Frequent floods and droughts have been recorded, with
increasing frequency of droughts that occur after a flood or
floods that occur after a prolonged drought. Therefore, studies
considering different approaches on droughts and floods may
underestimate the risk of disasters if considered independently.
This thesis investigates the impacts of climate change on extreme
floods and drought events using regional projections, trend
testing and standardized indices in the Itaja{\'{\i}} River
basin. The Itaja{\'{\i}} Vale region in the state of Santa
Catarina, Brazil, stands out for being a region by natural
disasters that caused considerable economic and social losses in
the municipalities that are part of the basin, however, in recent
years they have also been experiencing periods of drought that
affected the region. Economic activities are concentrated around
the agricultural sector, thus leaving the region susceptible to
disaster impacts, particularly hydrological-related disasters. The
method adopted was to calculate trends using the Mann-Kendall test
and Sen estimator, and the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)
and SSFI (Standardized Streamflow Index) indices for the current
period from 1989 to 2020 (32 years) and for future scenarios of
climate change. Two global climate models, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5,
were used by the ETA Regional Model, at 20 km resolution, for
three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099). These
projections adopted two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
The trend test for the two RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 o
ETA/HadGEM2-ES in general showed that the Itaja{\'{\i}} basin in
the short term is prone to more frequent flood events, and in the
medium and long term -long term drought events may be more
frequent. On the other hand, for the ETA/MIROC5 model in the RCP
4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, in the three periods, it indicated an
increase in precipitation and runoff in the Itaja{\'{\i}} basin,
that is, the region is more prone to the frequency of flood
events. When we analyzed the SPI and SSFI indices, the two models
ETA/Hadgem and ETA/MIROC and in the two scenarios of RCP 4.5 and
8.5 showed that in the three periods, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and
2071-2099, the basin Itaja{\'{\i}} is prone to extreme events of
floods and droughts, as evidenced by SPI and SSFI values above 2
and smaller -2, which indicate extremely wet and dry periods,
respectively. Therefore, the changes projected for this region can
trigger the occurrence of natural disasters, such as floods and
droughts, which can increase the vulnerability of people living in
risk areas. Thus, it is essential to consider the future climate
in order to take measures to mitigate the impacts of climate
change, as well as for better planning and management of water
resources at Itaja{\'{\i}} River basin.",
committee = "Alves, Lincoln Muniz (presidente) and Pineda, Luz Adriana Cuartas
(orientadora) and Alval{\'a}, Regina C{\'e}lia dos Santos
(orientadora) and Casagrande, Leandro and Cunha, Ana Paula Martins
do Amaral",
englishtitle = "Analysis of extreme events under climate change scenarios in the
Itaja{\'{\i}}-A{\c{c}}u river basin",
language = "pt",
pages = "162",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34T/48NF4UP",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34T/48NF4UP",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}