@Article{SantosFerDerVasCho:2023:EvPrSi,
               author = "Santos, Maria Luisa Rocha and Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende and 
                         Dereczynski, Claudine and Vasconcellos, Fernanda Cerqueira and 
                         Chou, Sin Chan",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de 
                         Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Evaluation of Precipitation Simulations at the Subseasonal Range 
                         in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil",
              journal = "Anu{\'a}rio do Instituto de Geoci{\^e}ncias",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "46",
                pages = "e59421",
             keywords = "Rainy season onset, Eta Regional Climate Model, CFSR, 
                         In{\'{\i}}cio da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa, Modelo regional 
                         Eta, CFSR.",
             abstract = "The objective of this work is to evaluate the subseasonal 
                         precipitation simulations of the Eta model during the onset of the 
                         rainy season in the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFB). Accumulated 
                         precipitation every 20 days in September and October (2011 to 
                         2015) was evaluated based on subseasonal simulations (integration 
                         period of up to 60 days) of the Eta-20-km model, nested within the 
                         Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), here called Eta-CFSR. 
                         MERGE precipitation data were used to evaluate Eta-CFSR simulated 
                         precipitation. A statistical method was employed to evaluate the 
                         models ability to simulate the onset of the rainy season in the 
                         Upper SFB. The main results are: i) The Eta-CFSR accurately 
                         represents the seasonality of the precipitation pattern in the SFB 
                         and the seasonal and interannual variation of the accumulated 
                         precipitation in all of the chosen three consecutive 20-day 
                         periods of years 2011 to 2015; ii) The model can represent the 
                         transition pattern from the dry to the rainy season, showing 
                         better results in 2011 and 2015, which were marked, respectively, 
                         by La Niņa and El Niņo, and by anomalies of sea surface 
                         temperature favorable and unfavorable for the occurrence of 
                         precipitation; iii) Although the model underestimates the amount 
                         of precipitation, it effectively captures the seasonal patterns 
                         and the onset of the rainy season, with a maximum advancement of 
                         two pentads in wetter years and delaying it in drier years. 
                         RESUMO: O objetivo deste trabalho {\'e} avaliar as 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es subsazonais de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do 
                         modelo regional Eta na detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o do in{\'{\i}}cio da 
                         esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa na Bacia Hidrogr{\'a}fica do Rio 
                         S{\~a}o Francisco (BHSF). Foram avaliados acumulados de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o a cada 20 dias dos meses de setembro e 
                         outubro (2011 a 2015), a partir de simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es em 
                         horizonte subsazonal (prazo de integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o de at{\'e} 
                         60 dias) do modelo Eta-20-km, aninhado ao Climate Forecast System 
                         Reanalysis (CFSR), aqui denominado Eta-CFSR. Dados de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do MERGE foram utilizados para 
                         avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o simulada pelo 
                         Eta-CFSR. Um m{\'e}todo estat{\'{\i}}stico foi aplicado para 
                         avaliar a habilidade do modelo em simular o in{\'{\i}}cio da 
                         esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa na regi{\~a}o do Alto S{\~a}o 
                         Francisco. Os principais resultados do trabalho foram: i) O 
                         EtaCFSR representa bem a sazonalidade do padr{\~a}o de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na BHSF e a varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o sazonal 
                         e interanual da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o acumulada a cada 20 dias; 
                         ii) O modelo {\'e} capaz de representar o padr{\~a}o da 
                         transi{\c{c}}{\~a}o da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o seca para a chuvosa, 
                         exibindo melhores resultados nos anos de 2011 e 2015, anos 
                         marcados por, respectivamente, La Niņa e El Niņo, e por anomalias 
                         de temperatura da superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar no Oceano 
                         Atl{\^a}ntico Tropical favor{\'a}veis e desfavor{\'a}veis 
                         {\`a} ocorr{\^e}ncia de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o; iii) Ainda que 
                         o modelo n{\~a}o simule corretamente a magnitude da 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, subestimando-a, ele captura sua 
                         sazonalidade e o in{\'{\i}}cio da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa, 
                         adiantando-a em no m{\'a}ximo duas p{\^e}ntadas nos anos mais 
                         {\'u}midos e atrasando-a em anos mais secos.",
                  doi = "10.11137/1982-3908_2023_46_59421",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2023_46_59421",
                 issn = "0101-9759",
                label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "suhelemoliveira,+59421-174396-2-LE-NORMALIZADO-10-11.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}