@Article{FerreiraChouDere:2023:EvSuPr,
               author = "Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende and Chou, Sin Chan and Dereczynski, 
                         Claudine",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)}",
                title = "Evaluation of Subseasonal Precipitation Simulations for the Sao 
                         Francisco River Basin, Brazil",
              journal = "Climate",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "11",
               number = "11",
                pages = "e213",
                month = "Nov.",
             keywords = "climate extremes, extended range, model errors, rainy season, 
                         transition season.",
             abstract = "Water conflicts have been a significant issue in Brazil, 
                         especially in the Sao Francisco River basin. Subseasonal 
                         forecasts, up to a 60-day forecast range, can provide information 
                         to support decision-makers in managing water resources in the 
                         river basin, especially before drought events. This report aims to 
                         evaluate 5-year mean subseasonal simulations generated by the Eta 
                         regional model for the period from 2011 to 2016 and assess the 
                         usefulness of this information to support decision-making in water 
                         resource conflicts in the Sao Francisco River basin. The 
                         capability of the Eta model to reproduce the drought events that 
                         occurred between the years 2011 and 2016 was compared against the 
                         Climate Prediction Center Morphing (CMORPH) precipitation data. 
                         Two sets of 60-day simulations were produced: one started in 
                         September (SO) and the other in January (JF) of each year. These 
                         months were chosen to evaluate the models capability to reproduce 
                         the onset and the middle of the rainy seasons in central Brazil, 
                         where the upper Sao Francisco River is located. The SO simulations 
                         reproduced the observed spatial distribution of precipitation but 
                         underestimated the amounts. Precipitation errors exhibited large 
                         variability across the subbasins. The JF simulations also 
                         reproduced the observed precipitation distribution but 
                         overestimated it in the upper and lower subbasins. The JF 
                         simulations better captured the interannual variability in 
                         precipitation. The 60-day simulations were discretized into six 
                         10-day accumulations to assess the intramonthly variability. They 
                         showed that the simulations captured the onset of the rainy season 
                         and the small periods of rainy months that occurred in these 
                         severe drought years. This research is a critical step to indicate 
                         subbasins where the model simulation needs to be improved and 
                         provide initial information to support water allocation in the 
                         region.",
                  doi = "10.3390/cli11110213",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli11110213",
                 issn = "2225-1154",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "climate-11-00213.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}