@Article{VeigaNGCSCSKFBMRBON:2023:ClChOv,
               author = "Veiga, Sandro F. and Nobre, Paulo and Giarolla, Emanuel and 
                         Capistrano, Vinicius B. and Silva J{\'u}nior, Manuel Baptista da 
                         and Casagrande, Fernanda and Soares, Helena Cachanhuk and Kubota, 
                         Paulo Yoshio and Figueroa, Silvio Nilo and Bottino, Marcus Jorge 
                         and Malagutti, Marta and Reyes Fernandez, Julio Pablo and Bonatti, 
                         Jos{\'e} Paulo and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de and Nobre, Carlos 
                         Afonso",
          affiliation = "{Nanjing University} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)}",
                title = "Climate change over South America simulated by the Brazilian Earth 
                         system model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios",
              journal = "Journal of South American Earth Sciences",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "0,0",
                pages = "e104598",
                month = "Nov.",
             keywords = "BESM2.5, Climate change, Extremes, Precipitation, South America, 
                         Surface air temperature.",
             abstract = "Climate projections simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model 
                         (BESM2.5) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios are analyzed 
                         based on future changes of surface air temperature (SAT) and 
                         precipitation with respect to the historical reference period 
                         19712000. Since BESM2.5 is the only climate model developed in a 
                         South American country, this study gives a particular emphasis to 
                         South American future climate projections. Regarding the surface 
                         air temperature, BESM2.5 projects a steady warming throughout the 
                         21st century, with the highest warming over eastern Amazonia, 
                         northern Chile and central South America for both scenarios. The 
                         SAT changes range between 2 °C and 34 °C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 
                         respectively. On the other hand, projected precipitation varies 
                         over different regions of South America, with decreasing and 
                         increasing trends over the Amazon and southern South America, 
                         respectively. Interestingly, this study shows contrasting results 
                         with respect to extreme precipitation indicators, projecting 
                         enhanced extreme events with higher numbers of both consecutive 
                         dry days and days in which the precipitation exceeds 20 mm over 
                         the southeastern region. The model projects a meridional dipole 
                         pattern in the precipitation, with decreasing precipitation and 
                         longer dry spells over Northeast Brazil and the East Amazon region 
                         and increasing precipitation and shorter dry spells over Northwest 
                         South America and West Amazon, that is driven by future changes in 
                         the SLP that imposes a meridional gradient over these regions, 
                         causing the increase of westerlies that are likely to increase the 
                         moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean into western South 
                         America and the weakening of the easterlies that transport 
                         moisture over eastern South America and East Amazon.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.jsames.2023.104598",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2023.104598",
                 issn = "0895-9811",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "1-s2.0-S0895981123004108-main.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}