@Article{FerreiraTaMeFeBoChRo:2023:PrSeWe,
               author = "Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende and Tavares, Priscila Silva and 
                         Medeiros, Gustavo Sueiro and Ferreira, Leonardo Nascimento and 
                         Borges, Pablo and Chou, Sin Chan and Rodrigues, Maria Laura",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Oxford} and 
                         {Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecu{\'a}ria e Extens{\~a}o Rural de 
                         Santa Catarina (EPAGRI)}",
                title = "Projections of severe weather and the impacts on transmission line 
                         towers in Santa Catarina, Brazil, under future scenarios of global 
                         climate change",
              journal = "Derbyana",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "44",
                pages = "e808",
             keywords = "Energy sector, Regional climate change, Eta Model, Instability 
                         indices, Setor energ{\'e}tico, Mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas 
                         regionais, Modelo Eta, {\'{\I}}ndices, de instabilidade.",
             abstract = "Transmission line towers are highly exposed to weather hazards. In 
                         southern Brazil, several damages to transmission lines have been 
                         reported due to severe weather events. Climate change projections 
                         indicate that the frequency and magnitude of extreme events may 
                         increase, making planning and adaptation of the transmission 
                         system exposure even more critical. In this work, we propose a 
                         severe weather index (SWI) as a proxy for detecting severe storms 
                         that can potentially result in extreme weather events. The SWI 
                         combines thresholds of instability indices based on observed 
                         severe events around the transmission tower-line systems. These 
                         indices were calculated using the downscaling by the Eta model at 
                         20 km resolution of three global climate model projections and at 
                         5 km of one global climate model for the historical period and the 
                         near future. The results show that the SWI captures the severe 
                         storms observed in the region. All downscaling projections agree 
                         with the increase of extreme weather events in the near future and 
                         the expansion of vulnerable areas. The constructed index can be 
                         employed to assess the risks and to plan the power transmission 
                         system better. RESUMO: As torres de linhas de transmiss{\~a}o 
                         est{\~a}o altamente expostas aos riscos clim{\'a}ticos. No sul 
                         do Brasil, v{\'a}rios danos {\`a}s linhas de transmiss{\~a}o 
                         foram relatados devido a eventos de tempo severo. As 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es relativas {\`a}s mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas indicam que a frequ{\^e}ncia e a magnitude dos 
                         eventos severos podem aumentar, tornando o planejamento e a 
                         adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o do sistema de transmiss{\~a}o ainda mais 
                         cr{\'{\i}}ticos. Neste trabalho, propomos um {\'{\i}}ndice de 
                         clima severo (SWI) para detectar tempestades severas que podem 
                         potencialmente resultar em eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos. O SWI 
                         combina limites de {\'{\i}}ndices de instabilidade baseados em 
                         eventos severos observados em torno dos sistemas de torres de 
                         transmiss{\~a}o. Estes {\'{\i}}ndices foram calculados a partir 
                         da redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de escala (downscalling) do modelo Eta com 
                         resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 20 km a partir de tr{\^e}s 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo clim{\'a}tico global, e do modelo 
                         Eta com resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 5 km a partir de um modelo 
                         clim{\'a}tico global, para o per{\'{\i}}odo hist{\'o}rico e 
                         futuro. Os resultados mostram que o SWI capta as fortes 
                         tempestades observadas na regi{\~a}o. Todas as 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es concordam com o aumento de eventos 
                         clim{\'a}ticos extremos num futuro pr{\'o}ximo e com a 
                         expans{\~a}o de {\'a}reas vulner{\'a}veis. O {\'{\i}}ndice 
                         constru{\'{\i}}do pode ser utilizado para avaliar os riscos e 
                         planejar melhor o sistema de transmiss{\~a}o de energia.",
                  doi = "10.14295/derb.v44.808",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.14295/derb.v44.808",
                 issn = "2764-1465",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "808-Texto do Artigo-868-1313-10-20231215.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}