@Article{BottinoNGSCMTON:2024:AmSaCl,
author = "Bottino, Marcus Jorge and Nobre, Paulo and Giarolla, Emanuel and
Silva J{\'u}nior, Manoel Baptista da and Capistrano, Vinicius
Buscioli and Malagutti, Marta and Tamaoki, Jonas Naboru and
Oliveira, Beatriz F{\'a}tima Alves de and Nobre, Carlos Afonso",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul
(UFMS)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)} and {Universidade de
S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)}",
title = "Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase
dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil",
journal = "Scientific Reports",
year = "2024",
volume = "14",
pages = "e5131",
month = "Mar.",
abstract = "Land use change and atmospheric composition, two drivers of
climate change, can interact to affect both local and remote
climate regimes. Previous works have considered the effects of
greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere and the effects of Amazon
deforestation in atmospheric general circulation models. In this
study, we investigate the impacts of the Brazilian Amazon
savannization and global warming in a fully coupled ocean-land-sea
ice-atmosphere model simulation. We find that both savannization
and global warming individually lengthen the dry season and reduce
annual rainfall over large tracts of South America. The combined
effects of land use change and global warming resulted in a mean
annual rainfall reduction of 44% and a dry season length increase
of 69%, when averaged over the Amazon basin, relative to the
control run. Modulation of inland moisture transport due to
savannization shows the largest signal to explain the rainfall
reduction and increase in dry season length over the Amazon and
Central-West. The combined effects of savannization and global
warming resulted in maximum daily temperature anomalies, reaching
values of up to 14 °C above the current climatic conditions over
the Amazon. Also, as a consequence of both climate drivers, both
soil moisture and surface runoff decrease over most of the
country, suggesting cascading negative future impacts on both
agriculture production and hydroelectricity generation.",
issn = "2045-2322",
language = "en",
targetfile = "s41598-024-55176-5.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "15 jun. 2024"
}