@InProceedings{GomesChouBust:2006:EtMoSe,
               author = "Gomes, Jorge Luis and Chou, Sin Chan and Bustamante, Josiane 
                         Ferreira",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Eta model seasonal precipitation forecasts with different 
                         initialization periods",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2006",
               editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
                pages = "565--567",
         organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and 
                         Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
            publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
              address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
             keywords = "Regional Climate Forecasts, Eta Model, Spinup time.",
             abstract = "GCM are generally initialized about a few months before the 
                         forecast period to allow some spin-up time for the soil moisture. 
                         During this initialization period, observed SST are used over the 
                         ocean. While in the GCM, the integration is mostly controlled by 
                         the lower boundary, in the limited area models, the climate state 
                         is related to the lateral boundaries, which are provided by the 
                         GCM. In longer spin-up time, model errors are also allowed to grow 
                         larger before saturation is reached. In this work an evaluation of 
                         seasonal forecasts using the Eta Model driven by CPTEC GCM, which 
                         was initialized at different spin-up time, is shown. The Eta Model 
                         domain covers most of South America, and was configured with 40 km 
                         and 38 layers. The CPTEC GCM run at T62L28 resolution. The soil 
                         moisture was initialized from monthly climatology, whereas sea 
                         surface temperature was taken from observed weekly mean. The GCM 
                         used Kuo convection scheme whereas the Eta Model used the 
                         Betts-Miller scheme. The model produced 3-month forecasts using 
                         persisted sea surface temperature anomaly. Two periods of 
                         initialization were taken: 2.5 and 0.5 months before the start of 
                         the forecast period. Results are shown for 
                         December-January-February (DJF) season of 3 different years: 1997, 
                         1998 and 1999, which comprise one El Niņo and one La Niņa event. 
                         DJF is the rainy season for most part of the South America 
                         continent. Precipitation forecasts from the CPTEC GCM are compared 
                         against surface observations in four major regions: Amazon region, 
                         Center-South, Northeast Brazil and the San Francisco river basin. 
                         Daily mean precipitation values of the two modes of run are very 
                         close in the Amazon and Center-South region, with no clear 
                         forecast bias. In the smaller regions, Northeast Brazil and the S. 
                         Francisco Basin, either 2.5- or 0.5-month spin-up time runs, show 
                         some difference, however, both forecasts similarly overestimated 
                         the observed precipitation. The inter-annual variability is less 
                         captured by the 2.5-month run than the 0.5-month run produced by 
                         the GCM. Precipitation forecasts from the Eta Model driven GCM 
                         forecasts from these two spin-up periods for the 3 years are also 
                         shown. Results show no clear advantage of nesting into forecasts 
                         from driver model using longer spin-up period.",
  conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
      conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "en",
         organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
                  ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.27.23.14",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.27.23.14",
           targetfile = "565-568.pdf",
                 type = "Climate predictions",
        urlaccessdate = "26 abr. 2024"
}