@InProceedings{RusticucciMarePenaReno:2006:CoObMo,
               author = "Rusticucci, Matilde and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Penalba, 
                         Olga and Renom, Madeleine",
          affiliation = "{Departamento de Ciencias de la Atm{\'o}sfera y los 
                         Oc{\'e}anos-FCEN- Universidad de Buenos Aires-Ciudad 
                         Universitaria Pab II (1428) Buenos Aires} and {Instituto Nacional 
                         de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and Facultad de Ciencias, 
                         Universidad de la Rep{\'u}blica Uruguay",
                title = "Comparisons between observed and modeled precipitation and 
                         temperature extremes in South America during the XX century (IPCC 
                         20C3M)",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2006",
               editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
                pages = "379--389",
         organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and 
                         Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
            publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
              address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
             keywords = "temperature extremes,climate change,South America, modelled 
                         vs.observed.",
             abstract = "One of the key aspects of Climate Change is to understand the 
                         behavior of extremes. It is recognized that the changes in the 
                         frequency and intensity of extreme events are likely to have a 
                         larger impact than changes in mean climate. We propose to assess 
                         the expected changes in climate extremes over southern South 
                         America through the analysis of the indices of the IPCC 4th 
                         Assessment Model Output for the present climate (IPCC20C3M). These 
                         {"}extreme indices{"} are derived data, from simulated daily 
                         temperature and precipitation, in the form of annual indicator 
                         time series. In this paper, for the common period 1960-2000, the 
                         mean, standard deviation and mean square error between the grid 
                         point from different models and the nearest station was 
                         calculated. The indices that could be comparable are: FD: annual 
                         occurrence of frost days (days with MinT <0ºC), Tn90: percentage 
                         of days where MinT was above the 90th percentile of the 1961-90 
                         base period. R10: number of heavy precipitation days > 10mm (R10), 
                         CDD: consecutive dry days and R5D: maximum 5-day precipitation. 
                         The available models are CCSM3 (CCSM),USA CNRM-CM3, (CNRM), France 
                         GFDL-CM2 .0 (GFDL0) GFDL-CM2.1 (GFDL), USA, INM-CM3.0-Russia 
                         (INM), MIROC high-resolution MIROC), MIROC medre-resolution 
                         (MIRMED), Japan, and PCM, USA (PCM) In general, it is necessary to 
                         think that the values of the models on the Andes cannot be 
                         evaluated by the failing of the models in interpreting the 
                         orography. If we center the analysis in the Southeast of South 
                         America, a low land region which has more dense information, one 
                         sees that the average value is well simulated, the station values 
                         has similar values over regions, and are of the same order of 
                         magnitude, as in case of the models. In some cases, as the model 
                         GFDL, FD's average values are well simulated. The interannual 
                         variability from days to weeks in average, also is in good 
                         agreement. Another temperature extreme, a warm one, Tn90, (being 
                         an index percentile-based, is relative to the local climate), It 
                         seems to be better represented that the FD. The consecutive dry 
                         days are more difficult to be simulated, since the region has a 
                         marked precipitation gradient that is not properly represented. 
                         The maximums of dryness over central Argentina Andes could not be 
                         represented for any model. On the other hand, the extensive dry 
                         season of the Amazon, is displeased and exaggerated in GFDL, 
                         whereas it does not exist for CCSM3. An index that measures the 
                         quantity of extreme rainfall, (R5d) shows in all the models that 
                         the quantity of rainfall is underestimated and there the 
                         differences of rate of rainfall are not clear. The one that better 
                         approaches the average values is the MIROC3.2. When the number of 
                         days is evaluated by extreme rainfall (R10), without considering 
                         how much it precipitated, the maps are more similar. The Amazon 
                         interannual variability is well simulated.",
  conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
      conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "en",
         organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
                  ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.28.18.42",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.28.18.42",
           targetfile = "379-390.pdf",
                 type = "Climate change in the SH",
        urlaccessdate = "05 maio 2024"
}