@InProceedings{HeldGomeNasc:2006:InTo,
               author = "Held, Gerhard and Gomes, Jorge Luis and Nascimento, Ernani de 
                         Lima",
          affiliation = "Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorol{\'o}gicas, Universidade Estadual 
                         Paulista and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and Instituto Tecnol{\'o}gico SIMEPAR, Universidade Federal do 
                         Paran{\'a}",
                title = "Forecasting a severe weather occurrence in the state of S{\~a}o 
                         Paulo, Brazil, on 24 may 2005: the Indaiatuba tornado",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2006",
               editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
                pages = "1799--1807",
         organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and 
                         Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
            publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
              address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
             keywords = "weather forecast, severe storms, Regional ETA Model, Meso-ETA 
                         Model, tornadoes, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil.",
             abstract = "The synoptic pattern over the State of S{\~a}o Paulo on 24 May 
                         2005 displayed characteristics often associated with classic 
                         mid-latitude severe weather outbreaks. Severe convective storms 
                         developed ahead of a migratory baroclinic system, clearly shown as 
                         a 500 hPa trough, where synoptic-scale upward motion was favored. 
                         Thus, large-scale destabilization occurred over the State of 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo that afternoon. In fact, the operational ETA-CPTEC 
                         6-hr forecast sounding for the nearest gridpoint to the tornado 
                         occurrence displayed a relatively high surface-based convective 
                         available potential energy (CAPE) of 1700 J.kg-1. Upper-level 
                         divergence was predicted over most of the State of S{\~a}o Paulo 
                         that afternoon, with diffluent flow over the eastern sections of 
                         the State. This upper-level pattern provided further support for 
                         strong deep convection. Since the resolution of the Regional ETA 
                         model, disseminated operationally by the Centro de Previs{\~a}o 
                         do Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC/INPE), is 40x40 km, the 
                         Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorol{\'o}gicas (IPMet/UNESP), in 
                         collaboration with CPTEC, also runs twice daily (00 and 12 UT) the 
                         Meso-ETA model, with its domain centered over Bauru. This model is 
                         initiated with the Regional ETA model and the resolution is 
                         10x10km, with outputs every 3 hours. Almost 48 hours ahead 
                         (initiated on 22 May 2005, 21:00 LT), it already predicted the 
                         likely occurrence of an extremely severe storm event in the 
                         Campinas region, where ultimately an F3 (Fujita scale) tornado was 
                         observed. The most important predictants for this day were: 
                         low-level (850 hPa) humidity convergence, divergence at 300 hPa, 
                         Omega at 500 and 300 hPa, K-index, as well as the CAPE calculated 
                         for Indaiatuba. The 3-hourly accumulated rainfall was also 
                         predicted well in terms of onset and area, as compared to the 
                         accumulated radar rainfall. Vertical profiles, simulating radio 
                         soundings, were calculated for Bauru and Indaiatuba, which are 
                         about 200 km apart. The CAPE for Indaiatuba (1313 J/kg) was 
                         predicted to be about four times greater than that for Bauru (322 
                         J/kg). Thus, based on the operationally available Regional 
                         ETA-CPTEC model, the predicted severe weather parameters (6 hours) 
                         did display some skill in highlighting the existence of a 
                         pre-storm environment that was favorable for significant severe 
                         weather development in the Indaiatuba region for the afternoon of 
                         24 May 2005. However, a very good indication of the severe weather 
                         environment, in which the tornadic supercell developed, was 
                         provided by the Meso-ETA model (IPMet/CPTEC) at least 48 hours 
                         ahead, as will be demonstrated in the paper. N.B.: This paper goes 
                         together with {"}THE STRUCTURE OF THREE TORNADO-GENERATING STORMS 
                         BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS IN THE STATE OF 
                         S{\~A}O PAULO, BRAZIL{"} (ID=10.30.03.50).",
  conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
      conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "en",
         organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
                  ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13",
           targetfile = "1799-1808.pdf",
                 type = "Weather analysis and forecasting",
        urlaccessdate = "11 maio 2024"
}