@Article{RepelliNobr:2004:StPrSe,
author = "Repelli, Carlos Alberto and Nobre, Paulo",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Statistical prediction of sea-surface temperature over the
tropical Atlantic",
journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
year = "2004",
volume = "24",
number = "1",
pages = "45--55",
month = "Jan.",
keywords = "Atlantic, canonical correlation analysis, climate modelling,
sea-surface temperature, statistical prediction.",
abstract = "A statistical system to predict sea-surface temperature anomalies
(SSTAs) over the tropical oceans, with emphasis on the tropical
Atlantic, is described. Canonical correlation analysis is used to
identify critical sequences of predictor patterns, which tend to
evolve into subsequent patterns and which can be used to form a
forecast. The results indicate that SST fields over the equatorial
Pacific and tropical Atlantic can be a potential predictor of the
SSTAs over the tropical Atlantic 3-4 months in advance. The
spatial structures of the SSTAs over the tropical Atlantic for the
period March-May are well captured by the predictions done with
initial conditions from September to February. Model performance
is better over the northern tropical Atlantic than over the
southern tropical Atlantic, where persistence is hardly beaten.
Results of this work can contribute to improve seasonal climate
predictions of rainfall anomalies over the northeast Brazil
region.",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
doi = "10.1002/joc.982",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.982",
issn = "0899-8418",
label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
language = "en",
targetfile = "982_ftp.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 mar. 2024"
}