@Article{NepstadLSTSSRB:2004:BaAn,
author = "Nepstad, Daniel and Lefebvre, Paul and Silva, Urbano Lopes da and
Tomasella, Javier and Schlesinger, Peter and Solorzano, Luiz and
Ray, Paulo Moutinho David and Benito, Jos{\'e} Guerreira",
affiliation = "{CPTEC-INPE-Cachoeira Paulista-12630-000-SP-Brasil}",
title = "Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and
tree growth: a basin-wide analysis",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
year = "2004",
volume = "10",
number = "5",
pages = "704--717",
month = "may.",
keywords = "evapotranspiration, fire, hydrology, NPP, rainforest, soil
moisture, tropical, water balance.",
abstract = "Severe drought in moist tropical forests provokes large carbon
emissions by increasing forest flammability and tree mortality,
and by suppressing tree growth. The frequency and severity of
drought in the tropics may increase through stronger El Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, global warming, and rainfall
inhibition by land use change. However, little is known about the
spatial and temporal patterns of drought in moist tropical
forests, and the complex relationships between patterns of drought
and forest fire regimes, tree mortality, and productivity. We
present a simple geographic information system soil water balance
model, called RisQue (Risco de Queimada - Fire Risk) for the
Amazon basin that we use to conduct an analysis of these patterns
for 1996-2001. RisQue features a map of maximum plant-available
soil water (PAW(max)) developed using 1565 soil texture profiles
and empirical relationships between soil texture and critical soil
water parameters. PAW is depleted by monthly evapotranspiration
(ET) fields estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation and
satellite-derived radiation inputs and recharged by monthly rain
fields estimated from 266 meteorological stations. Modeled PAW to
10 m depth (PAW(10 m)) was similar to field measurements made in
two Amazon forests. During the severe drought of 2001, PAW(10 m)
fell to below 25% of PAW(max) in 31% of the region's forests and
fell below 50% PAW(max) in half of the forests. Field measurements
and experimental forest fires indicate that soil moisture
depletion below 25% PAW(max) corresponds to a reduction in leaf
area index of approximately 25%, increasing forest flammability.
Hence, approximately one-third of Amazon forests became
susceptible to fire during the 2001 ENSO period. Field
measurements also suggest that the ENSO drought of 2001 reduced
carbon storage by approximately 0.2 Pg relative to years without
severe soil moisture deficits. RisQue is sensitive to spin-up
time, rooting depth, and errors in ET estimates. Improvements in
our ability to accurately model soil moisture content of Amazon
forests will depend upon better understanding of forest rooting
depths, which can extend to beyond 15 m. RisQue provides a tool
for early detection of forest fire risk.",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
doi = "10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.00772.x",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.00772.x",
isbn/issn = "1354-1013",
issn = "1354-1013",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Nepstad_Amazon drought and its implications.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}