@InProceedings{AravequiaSilv:2004:TwPaFo,
               author = "Aravequia, Jose Antonio and Silva Dias, Pedro Leite",
          affiliation = "{CPTEC-INPE-Cachoeira Paulista-12630-000-SP-Brasil}",
                title = "Two-dimensional Pattern of Forecast Model Drift in the Amazon 
                         Basin",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2004",
         organization = "Conferencia Cientifica do LBA, 3.",
             abstract = "The precipitation forecast drift (bias) at several time intervals 
                         of the CPTEC and the NCEP global models were computed for the 
                         period of 1997-1999. The CPTEC model shows less precipitation than 
                         the observations in the Amazon Basin during the summer, indicating 
                         that the model is not able to sustain enough convective forcing. 
                         As a result of the precipitation negative bias it is shown that 
                         the upper air flow develops a cyclonic drift. The NCEP model tends 
                         to overestimates the precipitation in the northern portion of the 
                         basin and underestimate in the central and southern portions. This 
                         pattern is shown to be related to the precipitation bias in the 
                         Andes. The causes of the precipitation bias are partially related 
                         to the convective parameterization and numerical constraints 
                         associated with the numerical treatment of steep orography. Both 
                         models indicate that there is a significant intraseasonal (20-60 
                         day) signal in the precipitation bias of the 120hr forecast in the 
                         Amazon region which is shown to be related to the Madden Julian 
                         oscillation. Thus, there are periods of higher predictability of 
                         the precipitation and periods of lower predictability with period 
                         of the order of 20-60 days.",
  conference-location = "Brasilia",
      conference-year = "27-29",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "en",
         organisation = "LBA",
           targetfile = "Aravequia_Two dimensonal pattern.ppt",
        urlaccessdate = "13 maio 2024"
}