@InProceedings{SismanogluSetz:2004:AvRePr,
               author = "Sismanoglu, Raffi Agop and Setzer, Alberto Waingort",
          affiliation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previs{\~a}o 
                         do Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos (INPE.CPTEC)",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o regional dos progn{\'o}sticos do risco de 
                         fogo semanal CPTEC aplicando o modelo {"}ETA{"} e dados 
                         observacionais na Am{\'e}rica do Sul",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2004",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 13.",
            publisher = "SBMET",
             abstract = "Adaptou-se o m{\'e}todo de c{\'a}lculo dos mapas di{\'a}rios de 
                         risco de fogo do Cptec para estimar m{\'e}dias semanais do risco 
                         futuro (RFF) ao longo de per{\'{\i}}odos de um m{\^e}s. 
                         Aplicou-se a previs{\~a}o do modelo {"}Eta Clim{\'a}tico{"} 
                         combinada com a atualiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o semanal de dados de 
                         superf{\'{\i}}cie observados. Estudou-se a Am{\'e}rica do Sul 
                         (AS), regionalizada em sete setores. A avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do 
                         RFF determinou a porcentagem de acertos dos focos de queima em 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao risco previsto, e ocorridos na primeira 
                         semana da atualiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos dados de 
                         superf{\'{\i}}cie; considerou-se os n{\'{\i}}veis elevados de 
                         risco M{\'e}dio, Alto e Cr{\'{\i}}tico. As regi{\~o}es de 
                         melhor desempenho do RFF foram no centro e nordeste do 
                         pa{\'{\i}}s, e no Par{\'a}, com acertos nos per{\'{\i}}odos 
                         mais cr{\'{\i}}ticos das queimadas antr{\'o}picas de 99%, 92% e 
                         90%, respectivamente. Outras regi{\~o}es de concord{\^a}ncia 
                         entre o RFF e os focos acumulados, foram a Amaz{\^o}nia, Roraima 
                         e o norte da AS, com cerca de 67% de acertos. O setor sul da AS e 
                         as regi{\~o}es sul e sudeste do Brasil apresentaram resultados 
                         satisfat{\'o}rios, cujos {\'{\i}}ndices de acertos variaram 
                         entre 73% e 90%. Apesar de n{\~a}o se dispor da climatologia do 
                         Eta, os resultados do RFF semanal mostram tend{\^e}ncia 
                         aceit{\'a}vel do desempenho do modelo. ABSTRACT: The method used 
                         by CPTEC/INPE to calculate Fire Risk maps for the burning of the 
                         vegetation on a daily basis was adapted to generate weekly 
                         averages of future risk (FFR). The “ETA” climatic model with 
                         monthly forecasts were used with weekly updates of observed 
                         weather data. The area studied was South America (SA), divided in 
                         seven regions. Evaluation of the FFR for one week was based in the 
                         percentage of fire occurrences during one week in areas of 
                         elevated risk classes of the Medium, High and Critic levels. 
                         Regions with the best performance of the FFR were those in the 
                         center and northeast of Brazil, and in the state of Par{\'a}, for 
                         the periods of intensive anthropic burning when rates of 99%, 92% 
                         and 90% were obtained, respectively. Other regions presented good 
                         agreement between the weekly FFR and the cumulative fires were 
                         Amazonia, the state of Roraima in particular, and the north of SA, 
                         with about 67% agreement. The south sector of SA and the south and 
                         southeast of Brazil presented results also considered 
                         satisfactory, varying from 73% to 90%. Despite the lack of ETA 
                         climatology for the regions studied, the weekly FFR results showed 
                         an adequate performance of the model.",
  conference-location = "Fortaleza",
      conference-year = "29 ago.- 03 set.",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "pt",
         organisation = "SBMET",
           targetfile = "0000000639.doc",
        urlaccessdate = "12 maio 2024"
}