@InProceedings{NobreOyaSamMarSal:2004:ImClCh,
               author = "Nobre, Carlos Afonso and Oyama, Marcos D and Sampaio, Gilvan 
                         Oliveira and Marengo, Jose Antonio and Salati, Eneas",
                title = "Impact of climate change scenarios for 2100 on the biomes of South 
                         America",
                 year = "2004",
                pages = "on line",
         organization = "International Clivar Science Conference, 1.",
             abstract = "The IPCC scenarios of climate change for two SRES emissions 
                         scenarios (A2 and B2) from an array of Global Climate Models 
                         available at the IPCC Data and Distribution Center (DDC) are used 
                         to study the potential redistribution and changes of biomes in 
                         South America for 2100. Earlier studies indicated various degrees 
                         of sensitivity of biomes to climate change in South America. An 
                         extreme case (Cox et al.,Nature, 2000) indicated an Amazon forest 
                         die-back. For this study, we use the CPTEC Potential Vegetation 
                         Model (Oyama and Nobre, GRL, 2003) forced by climatic fields of 10 
                         global climate models for the two above-mentioned SRES emissions 
                         scenarios. The ensemble of cases encompasses an envelope of 
                         plausible climate changes for this century. The results indicate 
                         that for the A2 emissions scenarios substantial biome 
                         redistribution can be expected. Large portions of the Amazon 
                         tropical forest would be replaced by tropical savannas and the 
                         semi-arid vegetation of Northeast Brazil could be replaced by 
                         semi-desert vegetation. Even for the more moderate B2 emissions 
                         scenarios, some biome redistribution can be expected, though of 
                         less impact. The ecological, social and economic implications of 
                         those projected impacts are discussed.",
  conference-location = "Baltimore, MD USA",
      conference-year = "21-25 jun.",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Nobre_Impacts of climate.pdf",
                  url = "http://www.clivar2004.org/electronic%@affiliation CPTEC-INPE-Cachoeira Paulista-12630-000-SP-Brasil",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}