@Article{BettolliAlBrRuOrArAr:2010:ReCoVa,
               author = "Bettolli, Maria Laura and Altamirano, Miguel {\'A}ngel and 
                         Brasesco, Gabriela Cruz and Rudorff, Frederico de Moraes and 
                         Ortiz, Arlen Mart{\'{\i}}nez and Arroyo, Jacinto and Armoa, 
                         Jorge",
          affiliation = "{} and {} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Pastura natural de Salto (Uruguay): Relaci{\'o}n con la 
                         variabilidad clim{\'a}tica y an{\'a}lisis de contextos futuros 
                         de cambio clim{\'a}tico. / Natural Pasture in Salto (Uruguay): 
                         Relationship with Climate Variability and Analysis in the Context 
                         of Future Climate Change",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
                 year = "2010",
               volume = "25",
               number = "2",
                pages = "248--259",
             keywords = "variabilidad y cambio clim{\'a}tico, crecimiento de la pastura, 
                         Salto, climate variability and change, pasture growth.",
             abstract = "En este trabajo se evalu{\'o} objetivamente la relaci{\'o}n 
                         entre la variabilidad del rendimiento de la pastura en el 
                         departamento de Salto (Uruguay) y la variabilidad clim{\'a}tica. 
                         Se analizaron tambi{\'e}n las posibles implicancias del cambio 
                         clim{\'a}tico futuro. Se utilizaron datos diarios y mensuales de 
                         la estaci{\'o}n meteorol{\'o}gica Salto en el per{\'{\i}}odo 
                         1961-1990 y un registro de datos experimentales de crecimiento de 
                         pastura en el per{\'{\i}}odo 1980-1994. Adicionalmente, se 
                         emplearon salidas diarias de rean{\'a}lisis del NCEP y de los 
                         Modelos de Circulaci{\'o}n General HadCM3 y CSIRO-Mk2 para los 
                         escenarios A2 y B2. Las correlaciones simples entre las variables 
                         clim{\'a}ticas y la pastura confirmaron en t{\'e}rminos 
                         cuantitativos la sensibilidad de la pastura a la variabilidad 
                         clim{\'a}tica, explicando entre el 20% y 58% de la varianza en 
                         los rendimientos. Las mayores asociaciones se encontraron en otoņo 
                         (principalmente con las variables relacionadas con la 
                         precipitaci{\'o}n) y verano. En invierno no se observaron 
                         asociaciones significativas. El efecto conjunto de las variables 
                         clim{\'a}ticas explic{\'o} entre el 36% y 86% de la variabilidad 
                         en el crecimiento de la pastura. Para los escenarios estudiados, 
                         los incrementos proyectados en las temperaturas m{\'{\i}}nima y 
                         m{\'a}xima permitir{\'{\i}}an reducir las probabilidades de 
                         ocurrencia de temperaturas por debajo del umbral m{\'{\i}}nimo 
                         considerado para la pastura (10°C) y aumentar las probabilidades 
                         de estr{\'e}s t{\'e}rmico durante el verano. La 
                         precipitaci{\'o}n presentar{\'{\i}}a incrementos que 
                         podr{\'{\i}}an aumentar la incidencia de excedentes 
                         h{\'{\i}}dricos en invierno. Los incrementos proyectados para el 
                         verano no compensar{\'{\i}}an los aumentos de la demanda 
                         h{\'{\i}}drica atmosf{\'e}rica por mayores temperaturas. 
                         ABSTRACT: This work aimed to evaluate the relationship between 
                         natural pasture yield and climate variability in the district of 
                         Salto (Uruguay), and to analyze the possible implications of 
                         future climate change. Daily and monthly data from Salto 
                         meteorological station for the period 1961-1990 were used together 
                         with experimental data of pasture yield for the period 1980-1994. 
                         Moreover, NCEP reanalyses of daily data as well as daily outputs 
                         from General Circulation Models HadCM3 and CSIRO-Mk2 were 
                         analyzed. The simple correlations between the climatic variables 
                         and the pasture yield confirm in quantitative terms the 
                         sensitivity of pasture yield to climate variability, accounting 
                         for 20% up to 58% of the variance. The highest associations were 
                         found in fall (mainly with precipitation variables), followed by 
                         summer. No significant associations were found in winter. The 
                         joint effect of the climatic variables on yield could explain 
                         between 36% and 86% of the pasture variability. The increments 
                         projected for the minimum and maximum temperatures may, 
                         respectivaly, reduce the probabilities of occurrences of 
                         temperatures below the minimum threshold considered for pasture 
                         (10ēC) and increase the probabilities of thermal stress, mainly in 
                         summer, respectively. Modeled increments in precipitation may 
                         raise the occurrences of precipitation excess during winter. On 
                         the other hand, the modeled precipitation increments during summer 
                         would not be enough to compensate the high water demand caused by 
                         the greater temperatures.",
                 issn = "0102-7786",
                label = "lattes: 1730066901742150 4 BettolliAlCrRuMaArAr:2010:ReCoVa",
             language = "es",
           targetfile = "a09v25n2.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "15 maio 2024"
}