@Article{MarengoCKAPSSLSBCGBT:2012:ClReAn,
               author = "Marengo, Jose Antonio and Chou, SC and Kay, Gillian and Alves, 
                         Lincoln M. and Pesquero, Jose and Soares, Wagner and Santos, 
                         Daniel C. and Lyra, Andre and Sueiro, Gustavo and Betts, Richard 
                         and Chagas, Diego and Gomes, J and Bustamente, Josiane and 
                         Tavares, Priscila",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and UK Met Off Hadley Ctr, 
                         Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England. and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {} and {} and UK Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, 
                         England.",
                title = "Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South 
                         America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: 
                         climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S{\~a}o 
                         Francisco and the Parana River basins",
              journal = "Climate Dynamics",
                 year = "2012",
               volume = "38",
               number = "9-10",
                pages = "1829--1848",
             keywords = "South America, climate change, downscaling, Amazon region.",
             abstract = "The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections 
                         over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by 
                         four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global 
                         Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run 
                         over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions 
                         scenario, but with each member having a different climate 
                         sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC 
                         model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The 
                         Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was 
                         configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to 
                         represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible 
                         future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and 
                         winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for 
                         South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. 
                         Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the 
                         mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of 
                         weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the 
                         subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface 
                         of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6°C) 
                         of continental South America increases the temperature gradient 
                         between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This 
                         leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and 
                         to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall 
                         reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil 
                         (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern 
                         coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, 
                         reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more 
                         intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference 
                         in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river 
                         runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S{\~a}o Francisco 
                         Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and 
                         droughts in the future.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00382-011-1155-5",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1155-5",
                 issn = "0930-7575",
                label = "lattes: 5719239270509869 1 OrsiniCKAPSSLSRCGBT:2011:ClAnRe",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Orsini-Climate Dyn-fulltext[1].pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "18 abr. 2024"
}