@Article{CoelhoCCFILSNOP:2012:ClDiTh,
               author = "Coelho, Caio A. S. and Cavalcanti, Iracema A. F. and Costa, Simone 
                         M. S. and Freitas, Saulo Ribeiro de and Ito, Ester Regina Kazuko 
                         and Luz, Giovana and Santos, Ariane F. and Nobre, Carlos A. and 
                         Orsini, Jose Antonio Marengo and Pezza, Alexandre B.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and School of 
                         Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia",
                title = "Climate diagnostics of three major drought events in the Amazon 
                         and illustrations of their seasonal precipitation predictions",
              journal = "Meteorological Applications",
                 year = "2012",
               volume = "19",
               number = "2",
                pages = "237--255",
                month = "June",
             keywords = "amazon droughts, monsoon precipitation regime, extreme river 
                         levels, teleconnections, aerosol, seasonal prediction aerosol, 
                         smoke, clouds, predictability, microphysics, cloudiness, 
                         atmosphere, rainfall, system, teleconnections, aerosol, seasonal 
                         prediction.",
             abstract = "ABSTRACT: The Amazon has a well-defined wet austral summer monsoon 
                         and dry winter monsoon precipitation regime and experienced a 
                         sequence of drought events in the last 13 years. This study 
                         performs a comparative assessment of observed and predicted 
                         climate conditions during the three most recent drought events in 
                         the Amazon, in 19971998, 20042005 and 20092010, with emphasis on 
                         how these events affected the regional monsoon-like precipitation 
                         regime. A century long Negro River level time series at Manaus is 
                         investigated, applying extreme values theory for estimating return 
                         periods of these major drought events. Possible teleconnections of 
                         river levels at Manaus and sea surface temperature at remote 
                         regions are explored. Large scale oceanic and atmospheric 
                         conditions are investigated to highlight the mechanisms associated 
                         with the observed drought conditions, particularly during the dry 
                         monsoon season. Satellite estimates are used for diagnosing 
                         biomass burning aerosol and discuss possible contributions to the 
                         observed precipitation deficits in the 2005 and 2010 drought 
                         events during the dry monsoon season. The study is concluded with 
                         an analysis of the performance of seasonal precipitation 
                         predictions for the dry monsoon seasons of July to September 1998, 
                         2005 and 2010 produced with the operational seasonal prediction 
                         system used at the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate 
                         Studies (CPTEC) of the Brazilian National Institute for Space 
                         Research (INPE). This system was capable of producing 1 month in 
                         advance drought warning for the three investigated events, 
                         relevant for helping the government and local population make 
                         decisions for reducing drought impacts in the Amazon region. 
                         Copyright Æ{\'E} 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.",
                  doi = "10.1002/met.1324",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1324",
                 issn = "1350-4827",
                label = "lattes: 9873289111461387 4 CoelhoCCFILSNMP:2012:ClDiTh",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Coelho_Climate diagnostics.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}