@InProceedings{Coelho:2012:PeEUSe,
               author = "Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "The performance of EUROBRISA seasonal precipitation forecasts over 
                         northeast Brazil during the rainy season of the last 4 years",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2012",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 17. (CBMET).",
             keywords = "seasonal forecasts, South America precipitation, empirical and 
                         coupled model dynamical forecasts, Bayesian forecast assimilation, 
                         forecast calibration, combination and verification.",
             abstract = "Este trabalho apresenta uma avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sazonais h{\'{\i}}bridas 
                         (emp{\'{\i}}rico-din{\^a}micas) de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul para o per{\'{\i}}odo 
                         Mar{\c{c}}o-Abril-Maio (MAM) produzidas no m{\^e}s de Fevereiro 
                         anterior (ou seja, previs{\~o}es com um m{\^e}s de defasagem), 
                         com {\^e}nfase na regi{\~a}o nordeste do Brasil durante os 
                         {\'u}ltimos 4 anos (2008-2011). Estas previs{\~o}es foram 
                         produzidas pelo Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos 
                         Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC) no contexto do EUROBRISA (Uma Iniciativa 
                         Euro-Brasileira para a melhoria das previs{\~o}es sazonais para a 
                         Am{\'e}rica do Sul). A por{\c{c}}{\~a}o norte da regi{\~a}o 
                         nordeste do Brasil tipicamente recebe a maior parte da 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o anual durante o per{\'{\i}}odo MAM, 
                         definindo a esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\'u}mida (chuvosa) da 
                         regi{\~a}o. Previs{\~o}es antecipadas sobre a possibilidade de 
                         excessos ou d{\'e}ficits de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o durante a 
                         esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa s{\~a}o de grande relev{\^a}ncia 
                         para v{\'a}rios setores que dependem das chuvas para suas 
                         atividades (por exemplo, agricultura, recursos h{\'{\i}}dricos e 
                         turismo). A avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o comparativa das previs{\~o}es 
                         probabil{\'{\i}}sticas terc{\'{\i}}licas de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o para as categorias acima da normal, 
                         normal e abaixo da normal produzidas pelo sistema h{\'{\i}}brido 
                         do EUROBRISA com as observa{\c{c}}{\~o}es indicaram em geral 
                         not{\'a}vel consist{\^e}ncia entre as previs{\~o}es e as 
                         observa{\c{c}}{\~o}es, demonstrando que o sistema de 
                         previs{\~a}o produziu boas indica{\c{c}}{\~o}es para as 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es esperadas de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         durante a esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa dos {\'u}ltimos 4 anos. 
                         ABSTRACT: This study presents an assessment of empirical-dynamical 
                         (hybrid) March-April-May (MAM) precipitation seasonal forecasts 
                         for South America issued in the previous February (i.e. 1-month 
                         lead), with particular attention devoted to forecasts over the 
                         northeast region of Brazil during the last 4 years (2008-2011). 
                         These forecasts were issued by the Centre for Weather Forecasts 
                         and Climate Studies (CPTEC) as part of EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian 
                         Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts. During 
                         MAM the northern part of the Brazilian northeast region usually 
                         receives most of its annual precipitation, defining the wet 
                         (rainy) season. Forecasting in advance the possibilities of 
                         precipitation excesses or deficits during the rainy season is of 
                         great relevance for a number of sectors that depend on rainfall 
                         for their activities (e.g. agriculture, water resource management 
                         and tourism). The comparative assessment of forecast probabilities 
                         for the most likely precipitation tercile categories (above 
                         normal, normal and below normal) produced by the EUROBRISA hybrid 
                         system with the observed precipitation indicates generally 
                         noticeable consistency between the forecasts and observations, 
                         demonstrating that the forecasting system has been producing good 
                         indication for the expected conditions during the rainy season of 
                         the last 4 years.",
                label = "lattes: 4978912302419377 1 Coelho:2012:PeEUSe",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "62QC.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "19 abr. 2024"
}