@ElectronicSource{MarengoAlve::TeHiBa,
abstract = "This study is directed to na analysis of the negative river
streamflow tendencies detected in the Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul
River series since the 1920s. This basin covers one of the most
developed and industrialized regions of Brazil in the states of
S{\~a}o Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, and is
responsible for almost 10% of the Gross National Product, and it
has a primary role in the National Water resources Policy. The
waters of the Paraiba do Sul River supply the demands of almost 15
million people in mostly large cities; depend primarily from this
water supply. Any reduction in the volume of its waters may have
large social and economical impacts, and currently the thinking on
many of the city governments across the valley is that the rains
are decreasing systematically. A detailed statistical analysis
applied to the river streamflow and rainfall series in several
stations in the valley detect the negative streamflow tendencies.
However, there are no signs of any significant rainfall reduction
in the valley, and in fact, some stations show small rainfall
increases in time during the recent decades. Am autocorrelation
analysis performed on the river streamflow series show a large
autocorrelation in consecutive years, suggesting than regulation
in the operation of reservoirs for water use (hydroelectric
generation, irrigation, human consumption) are responsible for the
negative streamflow tendencies, rather than a climate change in
the form of changes in the rainfall regime in the basin. Resumo:
Este trabalho tem a inten{\c{c}}{\~a}o de analisar as
tend{\^e}ncias negativas sistem{\'a}ticas detectadas em la
series hist{\'o}ricas de vaz{\~o}es e cotas do Rio
Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul desde 1920. Esta bacia abrange uma das
mais desenvolvidas {\'a}reas industriais do Pa{\'{\i}}s em
S{\~a}o Paulo, Minas Gerias e Rio de Janeiro, arrecada cerca de
10% do PIB nacional e j{\'a} assume um papel de destaque na
implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Pol{\'{\i}}tica Nacional de
Recursos H{\'{\i}}dricos. As {\'a}guas do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba
do Sul abastecem em torno de 15 milh{\~o}es de pessoas,
maiormente em regi{\~o}es metropolitanas que dependem
primordialmente de suas {\'a}guas. Uma queda sistem{\'a}tica nas
vaz{\~o}es pode ter graves conseq{\"u}{\^e}ncias sociais e
econ{\^o}micas, e uma das causas apontadas pelos governos locais
{\'e} uma poss{\'{\i}}vel queda no volume de chuvas. Uma
analise estat{\'{\i}}stica sistem{\'a}tica em series
pluviom{\'e}tricas e fluviometricas detecta de fato as
tend{\^e}ncias negativas nas vaz{\~o}es, mais n{\~a}o detectam
quedas sistem{\'a}ticas nas chuvas na bacia, e ate em alguns
pontos a chuva tem aumentado nas ultimas d{\'e}cadas. Uma analise
de correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o serial de estas series hidrol{\'o}gicas
mostram uma alta correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre vaz{\~o}es de em
v{\'a}rios anos consecutivos, sugerindo que a
regula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de uso da {\'a}gua para abastecimento,
gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de energia, e desvio de rios para usos na
agricultura podem ser os respons{\'a}veis pelas quedas
sistem{\'a}ticas nas vaz{\~o}es, e n{\~a}o uma mudan{\c{c}}a
clim{\'a}tica do regime de chuva na bacia.",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
affiliation = "{CPTEC-INPE-Cachoeira Paulista-12630-000-SP-Brasil}",
author = "Marengo, Jose Antonio and Alves, Lincoln Muniz",
keywords = "hidrologia, Rio Paraiba do Sul.",
language = "Portuguese",
lastupdatedate = "2005-05-12",
note = "{Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia}",
publisher = "Instituto and Nacional and de and Pesquisas and Espaciais",
ibi = "sid.inpe.br/ePrint@80/2005/05.11.13.21",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/sid.inpe.br/ePrint@80/2005/05.11.13.21",
targetfile = "v1.pdf",
title = "Tendencias Hidrologicas da Bacia do Rio Paraiba do Sul",
typeofmedium = "On-line",
urlaccessdate = "19 abr. 2024"
}