@Article{Nobre:2001:PoImEc,
               author = "Nobre, Carlos Afonso",
                title = "Mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas globais: poss{\'{\i}}veis 
                         impactos nos ecossistemas do Pa{\'{\i}}s",
              journal = "Parcerias Estrat{\'e}gicas",
                 year = "2001",
               volume = ".",
               number = "12",
                pages = "239--258",
                month = "set.",
             keywords = "ESTUDO DO CLIMA, mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas, 
                         desflorestamento, efeito estufa, aquecimento global, monitoramento 
                         ambiental, climate change, deforestation, greenhouse effect, 
                         global warning, environment monitoring.",
             abstract = "Modelos computacionais de simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas sugerem que o clima do planeta 
                         Terra poder{\'a} alterar-se significativamente neste s{\'e}culo 
                         se as emiss{\~o}es dos gases do efeito estufa continuarem a 
                         crescer. No caso do Brasil, se as emiss{\~o}es continuarem a 
                         crescer, os v{\'a}rios cen{\'a}rios de mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas indicam aquecimento de at{\'e} 4 a 6 oC em partes 
                         do pa{\'{\i}}s, principalmente na Amaz{\^o}nia, ao final do 
                         s{\'e}culo. H{\'a} ainda muita incerteza com rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         {\`a}s poss{\'{\i}}veis mudan{\c{c}}as na 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o pluviom{\'e}trica e quanto {\`a} 
                         modifica{\c{c}}{\~o}es na freq{\"u}{\^e}ncia de extremos 
                         clim{\'a}ticos (por exemplo, secas, inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es, 
                         geadas, tempestades severas, vendavais, granizo etc). 
                         Desmatamentos na Amaz{\^o}nia tamb{\'e}m podem causar 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas regionais, com aumento de 
                         temperatura e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Se 
                         altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas globais agirem 
                         sinergisticamente, com altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas 
                         regionais advindas de desmatamentos, a floresta tropical 
                         estar{\'a} mais vulner{\'a}vel {\`a} perda de biodiversidade e 
                         a inc{\^e}ndios florestais. De qualquer maneira, parece certo que 
                         o pa{\'{\i}}s estar{\'a} sujeito a impactos clim{\'a}ticos 
                         adversos. Grande parte da popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o do pa{\'{\i}}s, 
                         em fun{\c{c}}{\~a}o da baixa renda e do baixo n{\'{\i}}vel 
                         educacional, est{\'a} mais vulner{\'a}vel {\`a}s 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas, e t{\^e}m menores possibilidades 
                         de adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Abstract Climate change computational 
                         models indicate that the climate of Earth may change significantly 
                         throughout this Century, if emissions of grenhouse gases continue 
                         to grow. For Brazil, the various scenarios of climate change show 
                         a warming of 4 to 6 C, mostly in Amazonia, towards the end of the 
                         Century, in the case of unabated emissions. Scenarios of rainfall 
                         change and odifications on the frequency of extreme weather and 
                         climate phenomena (e.g., droughts, floods, frost, severe storms, 
                         intense winds, hail, etc.)are laden with uncertainty. Amazonia 
                         deforestation can change the regional climate as well. Large scale 
                         deforestation are likely to cause temperature increase and 
                         rainfall decrease regionally. If global warming and regional 
                         climate change due to deforestation, the tropical forest can 
                         become more vulnerable to losses of biodiversity and to forest 
                         fires. At any rate, it seems all but certain that Brazil will be 
                         subject to adverse climate change. A large proportion of Brazil's 
                         population is poor and uneducated, which makes them specially 
                         vulnerable to climate change. It cannot be forgotten that these 
                         people will experience greater difficulties to adapt to this 
                         situation.",
                 issn = "1413-9375",
                label = "9568",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "nobre.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}