%0 Journal Article
%4 sid.inpe.br/iris@1915/2006/01.31.10.48
%2 sid.inpe.br/iris@1915/2006/01.31.10.48.50
%@issn 0894-8755
%T Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall 1960-2000 and links with sea surface temperature
%D 2006
%8 April
%A Haylock, M. R.,
%A Peterson, T. C.,
%A Alves, Lincoln Muniz,
%A Ambrizzi, Tercio,
%A Anunciação, Y. M. T.,
%A Baez, J.,
%A Barros, V. R.,
%A Berlato, M. A.,
%A Bidegain, M.,
%A Coronel, G.,
%A Corradi, V.,
%A Garcia, V. J.,
%A Grimm, A. M.,
%A Karoly, D.,
%A Marengo, Jose Antonio,
%A Marino, M. B.,
%A Muncunil, D. F,
%A Nechet, D.,
%A Quintana, J.,
%A Rebello, E.,
%A Rusticucci, M.,
%A Santos, J. L.,
%A Trebejo, I.,
%A Vincent, L.,
%@affiliation University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit
%@affiliation National Climatic Data Center
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (INPE.CPTEC)
%@affiliation Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET)
%@affiliation Dirreccion de Meteorologio e Hidrologio
%@affiliation Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires
%@affiliation Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
%@affiliation Faculty of Science, Universidad de la Republica
%@affiliation Universidad Nacional de Asuncion
%@affiliation Direccion Nacional de Meterologia
%@affiliation Universidad Nacional Agraria la Molina
%@affiliation Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR)
%@affiliation University of Oklahoma
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (INPE.CPTEC)
%@affiliation Banco Nacional de Datos, Servicio Meteorologico Nacional
%@affiliation Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME)
%@affiliation Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA)
%@affiliation Dirección Meteorológica de Chile
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET)
%@affiliation Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos
%@affiliation Faculty of Marine Sciences, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral
%@affiliation Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia
%@affiliation Meteorological Service of Canada
%B Journal of Climate
%V 19
%N 8
%P 1490-1512
%K METEOROLOGY, South America, Rainfall, Sea surface termperature, METEOROLOGIA, América do Sul, Pluviosidade, Termperatura de superfície do mar.
%X A weeklong workshop in Brazil in August 2004 provided the opportunity for twenty-eight scientists from southern South America to examine daily rainfall observations to determine changes in both total and extreme rainfall. Twelve annual indices of daily rainfall were calculated over the period 1960 to 2000, examining changes to both the entire distribution as well as the extremes. Maps of trends in the twelve rainfall indices showed large regions of coherent change, with many stations showing statistically significant changes in some of the indices. The pattern of trends for the extremes was generally the same as that for total annual rainfall, with a change to wetter conditions in Ecuador and northern Peru and the region of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and northern and central Argentina. A decrease was observed in southern Peru and southern Chile, with the latter showing significant decreases in many indices. A canonical correlation analysis between each of the indices and sea surface temperatures (SST) revealed two large-scale patterns that have contributed to the observed trends in the rainfall indices. A coupled pattern with ENSO-like SST loadings and rainfall loadings closely resembling the pattern of the observed trend reveals that the change to a generally more negative SOI has had an important effect on regional rainfall trends. A significant decrease in many of the rainfall indices at several stations in southern Chile and Argentina can be explained by a canonical pattern reflecting a weakening of the continental trough leading to a southward shift in storm tracks. This latter signal is a change that has been seen at similar latitudes in other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. A similar analysis was carried out for eastern Brazil using gridded indices calculated from 354 stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) database. The observed trend toward wetter conditions in the southwest and drier conditions in the northeast could again be explained by changes in ENSO.
%@language en
%3 zs4.pdf