@InProceedings{RozanteCava:2006:PoCaBa,
               author = "Rozante, Jos{\'e} Roberto and Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de 
                         Albuquerque",
          affiliation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de 
                         Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC) and 
                         Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de 
                         Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos",
                title = "Poss{\'{\i}}veis causas da baixa previsibilidade do modelo 
                         regional Eta para um caso de complexo convectivo de mesoescala",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2006",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 14. (CBMET).",
            publisher = "SBMET",
             keywords = "CCMs, previsibilidade, modelo regional Eta.",
             abstract = "Este trabalho investiga a causa da baixa previsibilidade do modelo 
                         regional Eta para um caso de CCM ocorrido durante o experimento 
                         SALLJEX (South American Low-Level Jet Experiment). Dois casos de 
                         CCMs foram estudados, o primeiro com alta previsibilidade 
                         (18/01/2003) e o segundo com baixa previsibilidade (21/01/2003). 
                         As avalia{\c{c}}{\~o}es das CIs e das simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es dos 
                         CCMs, utilizando dados observados, mostraram qualidade inferior na 
                         CI e nas simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es referentes {\`a} 
                         integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o do caso do dia 21, indicando que embora o 
                         modelo tenha capacidade de simular bem os CCMs, {\'e} 
                         necess{\'a}rio CIs com qualidade. A previsibilidade de Complexos 
                         Convectivos de Mesoescala (CCMs) em modelos regionais {\'e} 
                         fortemente influenciada pelas condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es sin{\'o}ticas 
                         com as quais esses modelos s{\~a}o inicializados, ou seja, 
                         depende da qualidade e da quantidade de observa{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         assimiladas durante a gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais (CIs). The low predictability of 
                         the regional Eta model in a case of Mesoscale Convective System 
                         (MCS) is discussed and compared to other case of high 
                         predictability. Both cases occurred during the SALLJEX (South 
                         American Low-Level Jet Experiment), on 18th and 21st january 2003. 
                         The initial conditions from NCEP analysis were verified against 
                         observations, and it was found that the initial condition for the 
                         second case had lower quality compared to the initial condition of 
                         the first case. Besides, in the initial conditions of the second 
                         case a frontal system had moved northwards, and there were 
                         southerly winds in the region, that is not favorable to MCS 
                         development; while in the initial conditions of the first case 
                         there were northerly winds. Therefore, the predictability in 
                         regional models is influenced by the synoptic situation and depend 
                         on the quality of data used as initial conditions.",
  conference-location = "Florian{\'o}polis, SC",
      conference-year = "Nov.27 - 01 Dec.",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "pt",
         organisation = "Coordenadora Geral do Congresso - Maria Gertrudes Alvarez Justi 
                         (presidente da SBMET)",
           targetfile = "Rozante.Poss{\'{\i}}veis.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "11 maio 2024"
}