@InProceedings{FernandezPisnTara:2006:SePrPr,
               author = "Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes and Pisnichenko, Igor and Tarasova, 
                         Tatiana A.",
          affiliation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de 
                         Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos(CPTEC). and 
                         Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de 
                         Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos and Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de Previs{\~a}o de 
                         Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC)",
                title = "Seasonal precipitation prediction over south America with the 
                         ETACLIM",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2006",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 14. (CBMET).",
            publisher = "SBMET",
             keywords = "modelos clim{\'a}ticos regionais, conjunto, f{\'{\i}}sica 
                         misturada.",
             abstract = "As previs{\~o}es sazonais da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e 
                         temperatura s{\~a}o {\'u}teis para as regi{\~o}es afetadas por 
                         eventos extremos como secas e enchentes, os quais normalmente 
                         s{\~a}o associados a fen{\^o}menos globais (El Niņo). O objetivo 
                         deste trabalho {\'e} aumentar o desempenho das previs{\~o}es 
                         regionais sazonais dos eventos extremos sobre Am{\'e}rica do Sul 
                         usando para isto a t{\'e}cnica de previs{\~a}o por conjunto de 
                         f{\'{\i}}sica. A vers{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica do modelo regional 
                         ETA (ETACLIM) do Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos 
                         Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC) foi utilizada para simular a 
                         esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o de ver{\~a}o de 1997/1998 (El Nino). Os 
                         esquemas de convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o e microf{\'{\i}}sica 
                         dispon{\'{\i}}veis no modelo ser{\~a}o utilizados para 
                         constituir os membros do conjunto. Resultados preliminares usando 
                         os esquemas de convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o (Betts-Miller-Janjic, 
                         Kain-Fritsch and RAS) mostraram-se promissores para previs{\~o}es 
                         clim{\'a}ticas sobre Am{\'e}rica do Sul. The seasonal forecasts 
                         of precipitation and temperature on a regional scale are very 
                         useful, mainly for the regions affected by extreme events: such as 
                         droughts and floods. These events are commonly associated to 
                         global scale phenomena (e.g.: El Niņo/South Oscillation). The aim 
                         of this work is to improve the performance of seasonal regional 
                         forecasts of extreme events over South America using a mixed 
                         physics ensemble approach. For this purpose, seasonal simulations 
                         using the ETA regional climate model (ETACLIM) of the Center for 
                         Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) were carried out 
                         for austral summer 1997/98 (El Niņo). The microphysics and 
                         convection schemes available in the model will be used to 
                         constitute the members of the ensemble. The preliminary results 
                         using the convective schemes (Betts-Miller-Janjic, Kain-Fritsch 
                         and RAS) showed encouraging perspectives for climate predictions 
                         over South America region.",
  conference-location = "Florian{\'o}polis, SC",
      conference-year = "Nov.27 - 01 Dec.",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "pt",
         organisation = "Coordenadora Geral do Congresso - Maria Gertrudes Alvarez Justi 
                         (presidente da SBMET)",
           targetfile = "Fernandez.Seasonal.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 abr. 2024"
}