@Article{SalazarNobrOyam:2007:ClChCo,
               author = "Salazar, Luis Fernando and Nobre, Carlos Afonso and Oyama, Marcos 
                         D.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and Instituto de 
                         Aeron{\'a}utica e Espa{\c{c}}o, S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos, 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil",
                title = "Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical 
                         South America",
              journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
                 year = "2007",
               volume = "34",
               number = "9",
                pages = "L09708,",
                month = "may",
             keywords = "Amazonian deforestation, biosphere model, vegetation, feedbacks, 
                         dynamics, balance, forest, fire.",
             abstract = "We studied the consequences of projected climate change on biome 
                         distribution in South America in the 21st century by forcing a 
                         potential vegetation model with climate scenarios from 15 climate 
                         models for two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). This analysis was 
                         carried out for the savanna and tropical forest biomes, which are 
                         the predominant biomes in tropical South America. In both 
                         scenarios, the results indicate reduction of tropical forest cover 
                         areas which would be replaced by savannas. This reduction of 
                         tropical forests increases with the time through the end of the 
                         21st century, mostly over southeastern Amazonia. Considering the 
                         biome changes from current potential vegetation in the case when 
                         at least 75% of the calculations agree on the projected biome 
                         change ( consensus), the decrease of the tropical forest area in 
                         South America is 3% for the period 2020 - 2029, 9% for 2050 - 2059 
                         and 18% for 2090 - 2099 for the A2 emission scenario.",
                  doi = "10.1029/2007GL029695",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029695",
                 issn = "0094-8276",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "salazar_climate.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 abr. 2024"
}