@Article{MarengoJoneAlveValv:2009:FuChTe,
               author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Jones, R. and Alves, Lincoln Muniz 
                         and Valverde, Maria Cleofe",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and 
                         University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)}",
                title = "Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South 
                         America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling 
                         system",
              journal = "Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology",
                 year = "2009",
               volume = "29",
               number = "15",
                pages = "2241--2255.",
             keywords = "climate change, downscaling, vulnerability.",
             abstract = "Using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system this study 
                         analyses the distribution of extremes of temperature and 
                         precipitation in South America in the recent past (1961-1990) and 
                         in a future (2071-2100) climate under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 
                         emissions scenarios. The results show that for the present climate 
                         the model simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme 
                         temperature and rainfall events when compared with observations, 
                         with temperature the more realistic. The observations over the 
                         region are far from comprehensive which compromises the assessment 
                         of model quality. In all the future climate scenarios considered 
                         all parts of the region would experience significant and often 
                         different changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. In the 
                         future, the occurrence of warm nights is projected to be more 
                         frequent in the entire tropical South America while the occurrence 
                         of cold night events is likely to decrease. Significant changes in 
                         rainfall extremes and dry spells are also projected. These include 
                         increased intensity of extreme precipitation events over most of 
                         Southeastern South America and western Amazonia consistent with 
                         projected increasing trends in total rainfall in these regions. In 
                         Northeast Brazil and eastern Amazonia smaller or no changes are 
                         seen in projected rainfall intensity though significant changes 
                         are seen in the frequency of consecutive dry days. © 2009 Royal 
                         Meteorological Society.",
                  doi = "10.1002/joc.1863",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1863",
                 issn = "1558-8432 and 1558-8424",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Future.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}