@Article{CoelhoStepBalm:2005:SeRaFo,
               author = "Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Stephenson, D. B. and 
                         Balmaseda, M.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and ECMWF 
                         - Reading, U. K. and ECMWF - Reading, U. K.",
                title = "From multi-model ensemble predictions to well-calibrated 
                         probability forecasts: Seasonal rainfall forecasts over South 
                         America 1959-2001",
              journal = "Clivar Exchanges",
                 year = "2005",
               volume = "10",
               number = "1",
                pages = "14--20",
                month = "jan",
             keywords = "South America, rainfall, seasonal forecasts.",
             abstract = "South American rainfall seasonal forecasts are currently produced 
                         using either physically derived numerical climate models or using 
                         empirical (statistical) relationships based on historical data. 
                         Only a few studies have compared the skill of these two approaches 
                         for some regions of South America, indicating that more comparison 
                         studies are required. This paper aims to compare the skill of an 
                         empirical model with coupled multi-model December-January-February 
                         (DJF) South American rainfall anomaly predictions. The austral 
                         summer season is when most of South America receives most of its 
                         annual rainfall. Therefore, goo quality predictions for DJF are 
                         crucial for those sectors that depend on seasonal rainfall for 
                         future planning (e.g. agriculture, electricity generation).",
                 issn = "1026-0471",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Exchanges32_.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}