@InProceedings{MouraHerdMendDami:2008:AvPrMo,
               author = "Moura, Rildo Gon{\c{c}}alves and Herdies, Dirceu Luis and Mendes, 
                         David and Dami{\~a}o, M{\^o}nica Cristina",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)}",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo 
                         regional ETA utilizando as an{\'a}lises do CPTEC e NCEP",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2008",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 15.",
             keywords = "avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de modelos, precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, 
                         modelagem num{\'e}rica de tempo.",
             abstract = "os modelos num{\'e}ricos de tempo s{\~a}o ferramentas 
                         importantes tanto para a melhoria no entendimento dos 
                         fen{\^o}menos meteorol{\'o}gicos, como no auxilio da 
                         previs{\~a}o de tempo. Logo, o conhecimento do desempenho dos 
                         modelos no que tange a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, juntamente com 
                         seus erros sistem{\'a}ticos, {\'e} de suma import{\^a}ncia para 
                         que os meteorologistas (previsores) elaborem previs{\~o}es de 
                         tempo cada vez mais confi{\'a}veis. Com o objetivo de melhorar a 
                         qualidade da previs{\~a}o de tempo no Brasil, o Centro de 
                         Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC) do 
                         Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), disponibiliza 
                         diariamente previs{\~o}es de modelos num{\'e}ricos de tempo, com 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~a}o inicial Physical-space Statistical Analysis 
                         System (PSAS) do pr{\'o}prio centro e tamb{\'e}m do National 
                         Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A partir de dezembro 
                         de 2007, a avali{\c{c}}{\~a}o da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o gerada 
                         por esses modelos, est{\'a} utilizando como refer{\^e}ncia os 
                         dados {"}MERGE{"}. Neste trabalho s{\~a}o mostradas as 
                         avalia{\c{c}}{\~o}es das previs{\~o}es de 24 a 120 horas, 
                         durante a esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o de ver{\~a}o (DJF) de 2007 e 2008, 
                         da distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial (ERRO M{\'E}DIO), do erro 
                         m{\'e}dio quadr{\'a}tico (RMSE) e da evolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do 
                         ERRO M{\'E}DIO da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, para duas diferentes 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais (an{\'a}lises). Os resultados 
                         mostram, em ambas an{\'a}lises, um erro m{\'e}dio positivo 
                         (superestimativa) sobre a Regi{\~a}o Norte, principalmente para 
                         24 horas de previs{\~a}o. Por{\'e}m, quando utilizada a 
                         an{\'a}lise do CPTEC a {\'a}rea de superestimativa {\'e} menor 
                         e menos intensa. ABSTRACT: The weather numerical models are 
                         important material for the improvement in the agreement of the 
                         meteorological phenomenon as in the aid of the weather forecast. 
                         The knowledge of the performance of the models in relation the 
                         precipitation, together with its bias quality controls, is 
                         important so that the meteorologists develop better weather 
                         forecasts. With the objective to improve tehe quality of the 
                         weather forecast in Brazil, the Center of Weather Forecast and 
                         Climate Studies (CPTEC) of the National Institute for Space 
                         Research (INPE), provides daily forecasts of weather numerical 
                         models, with initial condition Physical-space Statistical Analysis 
                         System (PSAS) from CPTEC and also of the National Center for 
                         Environmental Prediction (NCEP). From December of 2007, the 
                         evaluation of the precipitation created for these models, is using 
                         as reference data {"}MERGE{"}. In this work shown the evaluations 
                         of the forecasts of 24 and 120 hrs, during the station of summer 
                         (DJF) of 2007 and 2008, of the space distribution (mean error), 
                         Root mean square error (RMSE) and of the evolution of the mean 
                         error of the precipitation, for two different initial conditions 
                         (analysis). The results show that the two analysis have positive 
                         an mean error (super estimative) on the Region North, principally 
                         for 24 hours of forecasts. However, when used the analysis of the 
                         CPTEC the super estimate area is minor and minor intense.",
  conference-location = "S{\~a}o Paulo",
      conference-year = "24-29ago",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "moura _avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "11 maio 2024"
}